Most people, including teachers, heads and students, did not perceive teacher-assessed GCSE and A-level grades awarded in the summer of 2021 as reliable, according to a YouGov poll carried out for Ofqual.
And only half of respondents to the survey thought GCSE and A-level grades set by teachers, after exams were cancelled last year, were free from bias, when asked in September and July of that year.
The poll also showed that for senior leaders, teachers and students, confidence in GCSEs fell in 2021 compared with the confidence they felt pre-pandemic.
The research, commissioned by Ofqual and published by YouGov today, involved a survey of over 3,000 respondents on their confidence in the way grades were awarded in 2021.
Respondents answered a series of surveys over four waves between March to September 2021, evaluating feelings pre- and post-assessment.
In 2021 exams were cancelled for the second consecutive year and students were awarded teacher-assessed grades, leading to grade inflation.
In 2022 exams returned with mitigations put in place to help students who had their learning disrupted by the pandemic, including advance information on topics and exam aids, such as formulae and equation sheets.
GCSEs 2021: Concerns about bias
People were most concerned about teacher-assessed grades in 2021 being linked to bias. In the survey, the theme of bias had the “lowest levels of confidence when thinking about both before the pandemic and 2021 contexts”.
“This was also one of the themes with the most significant difference in perceptions when comparing 2021 to pre-pandemic, where stakeholders were much less likely to perceive grades as being free from bias in 2021,” the research said.
The poll found that confidence in the reliability of GCSE grades fell compared with pre-pandemic levels, with just 39 per cent of respondents agreeing grades were reliable, down from 69 per cent pre-pandemic.
And confidence in A-level grade reliability also fell in 2021, with only one-third of respondents having confidence (34 per cent) in July 2021, down from nearly three-quarters (72 per cent) pre-pandemic.
However, this confidence rose slightly to 40 per cent by September 2021, after results were released.
Grading arrangements ‘as good as they could be’
Overall, over half of teacher, student and parent respondents (52 per cent) were confident that the arrangements for grading students that were in place across all qualifications “were as good as could be given the circumstances”.
Another aspect that was judged was confidence in teacher judgement overall, with respondents found to have “relatively high” overall confidence compared with other issues that were measured in the survey.
The research found that heads, teachers, students and parents “felt confident that teachers had the expertise to grade their students, although they were less confident that they would grade them accurately in reality”.
However, there was “much lower” confidence in grades being reliable and comparable across schools in comparison with pre-pandemic perceptions.
Overall, half of respondents agreed that students “would get, or got, the grades they deserved in 2021”, with parents, teachers and senior leaders sharing this sentiment most strongly.
However, this confidence fell in students from black, Asian, and minority ethnicity backgrounds, disabled students and students with special educational needs, with only around one-third agreeing that these groups would get the grades they deserved. Confidence was lowest for students from disadvantaged backgrounds, with around three in 10 feeling confident.
Worry over private school grade inflation
In the summer of 2021, when teacher-assessed grades were awarded, private schools saw a 12.1 percentage point increase in the number of A* grades awarded at A level.
And now private schools are being investigated by exam boards over allegations of malpractice in grade inflation.
Earlier this month Ofqual chief Dr Jo Saxton told MPs on the Commons Education Select Committee: “Ofqual takes all allegations of malpractice and cheating extremely seriously, and we require the board to investigate any credible evidence of malpractice and cheating.”
The return of exams in 2022
In the summer of 2022, with the return of exams, the proportion of students achieving top grades fell, as expected.
And last week government data revealed that the key stage 4 disadvantage gap had increased to its widest level in 10 years.
Department for Education data showed that the KS4 disadvantage gap index widened in 2022, compared with the previous year (from 3.79 to 3.84), putting it at its highest level since 2012.
