There was a “statistically significant” decline in the performance of students in maths, but not in English, in this year’s National Reference Test compared with the last time the test was taken before the Covid pandemic, according to an exams regulator.
Ofqual said that the results for this year’s test show no statistically significant difference when compared to 2020’s results in English at any of the key grades but maths results showed a “downward change at each of the key grades”.
However, Ofqual decided against lowering GCSE maths grades in line with these results.
In today’s data, the 2022 results have been compared with 2020’s National Reference Test, which was sat before Covid disruption affected schools.
A leading education expert has said the results suggest that young people’s English and maths skills are not hugely out of kilter with pre-pandemic levels.
The National Reference Test is used to help Ofqual and exam boards to set grade boundaries and has been carried out since 2017.
In February and March this year, nearly 13,000 Year 11 students from more than 330 schools in England took the National Reference Test in English and maths, which is administered by the National Foundation For Educational Research (NFER).
The tests are designed to provide evidence on the performance of 16-year-old students in English language and maths, and sees pupils sit a GCSE-standard paper in each subject.
The first reference test, taken in 2017, was benchmarked against the first awards of the reformed GCSEs in English language and maths, and subsequent tests compare the performance of students with those in previous years.
Ofqual’s data, published today, shows how many pupils have achieved two key grade boundaries - grades 7 and 4.
The results show that, in the English Language test, 65.3 per cent of pupils demonstrated a grade 4 standard compared with 67.7 per cent in 2020 and 16.9 per cent achieved a grade 7 standard this year compared with 18.1 per cent two years earlier.
In maths, 71.4 per cent of students achieved level 4 this year compared with 74.1 two years earlier and 21 per cent achieved level 7 compared with 24.1 per cent in 2020.
The National Reference Test provides additional evidence for exam boards when setting grade boundaries in GCSE English language and maths.
Where the test shows a statistically significant difference in performance, Ofqual can require exam boards to adjust the grade standards when setting GCSE grade boundaries. It did this in summer 2020 for GCSE maths, resulting in an uplift in grades.
Ofqual said that this year, while outcomes in maths were statistically significantly lower than in 2020, the chief regulator Jo Saxton decided not to implement a downward change in results “because this would be counter to the wider policy intent of more generous grading to reflect the disruption caused by the pandemic”.
In an analysis for FFT Education Datalab, education and social statistics professor John Jerrim said these figures provide “probably the best measure we have on how much learning loss there has been amongst secondary school pupils over the last few years (and any subsequent catch-up)”.
On the decline in maths, he added: “Compared to 2020, there does seem to have been some learning loss; the data points in 2022 for all three grade boundaries are lower than in 2020.
“But, at the same time, the results don’t look completely disastrous to me. Performance levels are slightly higher in 2022 than in 2021 (though some caution as the difference is not statistically significant) and are comparable to levels seen in 2017.
“So, not good. But, given the context of what this cohort of Year 11s has been through, it does feel like things could have been much worse.”
‘Teachers and schools deserve a lot of credit’
Commenting on the results as a whole Professor Jerrim added: “The main thing I think is that teachers and schools deserve a lot of credit for their efforts over the last few years.
“The results from the NRT give us our best indication of learning loss and subsequent catch-up in secondary schools. The pandemic obviously had the potential to cause huge educational damage.
“From the NRT, I think what we can see is the huge efforts the education community has made over the last few years.”
