For most qualifications at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher there was “greater alignment” between teacher estimates and results in 2023 than before the pandemic, new analysis from the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) shows.
Half of final exam grades this year (49.8 per cent) were accurately predicted by teachers, according to the SQA comparison of teachers’ estimated grades and actual results.
In 2022 50.8 per cent of exam grades were accurately predicted by teachers, but in 2019 that figure was 46.5 per cent.
Where teachers failed to predict the correct grade this year, they were more likely to underestimate how well a student would do.
Around one-third of candidates (31.9 per cent) across National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher got a grade higher than that predicted by their teachers, and around one-fifth (18.3 per cent) got a grade lower.
SQA exam results vs teacher estimates
The analysis shows that post-pandemic teacher estimates were more likely to match final results than estimates before the Covid pandemic.
From 2017 to 2019 45.9 per cent of teacher estimates matched results, but from 2022 to 2023 50.3 per cent of estimates matched results.
When the estimates and results for all National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher qualifications (with an entry size of at least 100) were combined, researchers found that “for the majority of qualifications there was greater alignment between estimates and results in 2023 than was seen prior to the pandemic”.
When it comes to the different qualifications, teachers this year were most likely to accurately predict N5 final grades:
- 51.5 per cent of National 5 candidates achieved a grade that matched their estimated grade in 2023.
- 47.4 per cent of Higher candidates achieved a grade that matched their estimated grade in 2023.
- 46.7 per cent of Advanced Higher candidates achieved a grade that matched their estimated grade in 2023.
Where estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they “most commonly differed by one grade”, the research says.
In the instances where the awarded grade was higher than the estimated grade in 2023, 72.7 per cent of estimates differed by one grade.
In the instances where the grade was lower than the estimate, 80.1 per cent of estimates differed by one grade.
In all of the years included in the analysis - 2017-2019 to 2022-2023 - “the proportion of candidates achieving A grades was higher than the proportion of candidates estimated to achieve A grades”.
For example, in 2023 teachers predicted that 30.1 per cent of entries at N5, Higher and Advanced Higher would attain A grades, but actually 36.2 per cent achieved the top grade.
The pass rates at N5 and at Higher would have been lower this year if they had been based on teacher estimates - but the pass rate at Advanced Higher would have been higher, according to the research.
SQA collects estimates of attainment from schools and colleges every year as a part of the awarding process.
