Secondary school teacher vacancies are still more than a third higher than pre-pandemic levels in some regions despite an overall improvement nationally, data seen by Tes reveals.

Experts have suggested that it is possible “school recruitment in England will never quite return to its pre-pandemic state”, in the same week a report warned the government is “at risk of under-recruiting” secondary trainee teachers for 10 out of 17 subjects for next year.

Despite the slight fall in overall advert numbers year-on-year, vacancies are still above levels seen before Covid in 2018-19.

According to SchoolDash data, recruiting activity in schools appears to have been higher than normal in the early part of the school year (September to December) - ahead of the “peak season” for hiring teachers in April to May - but has returned more towards pre-pandemic levels in recent months (January to March).

Sixteen per cent more secondary and college teacher jobs were advertised this academic year up to 8 March (20,751), compared with the number of vacancies posted in the same period in 2018-19 before the pandemic (17,948).

However, this figure was slightly lower than the 22,147 recorded last year, which was 23 per cent up on 2018-19.

Hard-to-recruit hot spots

In the North West, vacancies were 36 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, with 2,214 recorded by 8 March this year compared with 1,632 in 2018-19.

This was even higher than the 31 per cent rise on pre-pandemic figures recorded in the region last year (2,176 vacancies).

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In the West Midlands, there were 1,822 adverts recorded up to 8 March this year - a 15 per cent rise on the number of vacancies posted in the year before the pandemic (1,587) and 5 per cent up year-on-year (1,738).

However, some regions have seen vacancies fall closer to pre-pandemic levels.

Vacancies in the South West were still 21 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, rising to 1,798 this year from 1,489 in 2018-19. However, this is slightly down on the 1,992 recorded last year.

And in the North East, 412 vacancies were recorded as of 8 March - 27 per cent below the 568 recorded in 2018-19.

No recruitment recovery yet

Dr Timo Hannay, founding managing director of SchoolDash, said: “The reasons for such disparities are likely to be multifaceted and could include variations in the impacts of the pandemic, in overall unemployment rates, in the effects of migration, and in the characteristics of local populations and economies.”

He said it was “unclear” how these trends were related to “continuing direct effects of the pandemic as opposed to other demographic and socioeconomic changes related to, say, Brexit, the cost-of-living crisis or the tight British labour market”.

However, Dr Hannay added it “may be that school recruitment in England will never quite return to its pre-pandemic state”.

But Rob McDonough, chief executive of East Midlands Education Trust, said that the recruitment picture is “just as difficult” this year and he is “not seeing any recovery yet”.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said the data “chimes with the worrying stories we continue to hear from our members about the difficulties they are having recruiting subject specialists”.

“It’s not just recruitment - both new teachers and experienced teachers are seriously considering their future in the profession, affecting the supply of future school leaders.

“It’s like trying to fill a bath without a plug,” he added.

Rural areas are harder hit

The number of school job adverts in urban areas follows the national trend of falling below 2022-23, but remaining above pre-pandemic levels.

In 2018-19, there were 6,777 adverts for teachers in towns and cities recorded by 8 March. The number of vacancies was up by almost a fifth (19 per cent ) to 8,080 last year. This year, while the level of adverts was 12 per cent above pre-pandemic levels, it fell slightly year-on-year to 7,562.

However, schools in rural areas bucked the trend. So far this year, 1,150 vacancies have been recorded, up 34 per cent from 2018-19 and higher than the 1,103 recorded last year.

The picture is also mixed for subject-specific recruitment, according to the data. Secondary teacher vacancies by subject for English, mathematics and science have roughly returned to pre-pandemic levels, but vacancies for art, music and drama have continued to rise and “are at their highest ever levels”.

In music and drama, 1,462 adverts were recorded up to 8 March, above the 1,410 recorded last year and 41 per cent above the 1,039 recorded pre-pandemic.

However, science has almost fallen back to pre-pandemic levels, recording 3,773 vacancies this year so far, compared with 3,691 in 2018-19.

Jenni French, head of Stem in schools at the Gatsby Charitable Foundation, said that despite the fall, there is “still a lot of recruiting going on and even if this is slightly subsided, schools will still feel the pressure”.

Miss French said that pre-pandemic levels themselves were high and even a trend back to pre-pandemic levels will “still feel like a lot of recruiting”.

And Ms French said that the fall in numbers overall could be “down to a host of reasons”. She said it could be that the adverts have not yet appeared, or that “funding constraints on schools [are] preventing them advertising posts”.

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