A third of students are expected to need to resit GCSE English or maths after not achieving a pass this year, early results analysis has found.
Using data from around half the cohort, FFT Education Datalab found that 34 per cent of students in 2023-24 fell short of achieving a grade 4 in English or maths.
This is almost exactly the same as the 33 per cent who did not achieve a grade 4 or better in 2022-23.
The standard required is a grade 4 in both English and maths.
More than half of students from disadvantaged backgrounds did not get the grades they needed, compared with just over a quarter of their more affluent peers.
‘This won’t change unless we do something differently’
Students who do not achieve a grade 4 or above in GCSE English and maths are required to resit or sometimes take an alternative functional skills qualification.
“These findings show us that we are no further forward in improving the fortunes of the ‘forgotten third’,” said Pepe Di’Iasio, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders.
He added: “This won’t change unless we do something differently by introducing a way of assessing students in English and maths against predetermined criteria, like a driving test, instead of ranking them as we currently do.”
The resit policy introduced by the former government has been repeatedly criticised as leaving behind around a third of students every year - and many end up stuck in a cycle of retakes.
Mr Di’Iasio said this resit policy should be scrapped.
Under the former government, minimum teaching hours for resits were introduced from September - three hours a week for English and four for maths. These are expected this year, and mandatory next year.
This was criticised as showing “an alarming lack of understanding of the current teacher shortage”.
FFT said the number of students needing to retake will add up to “a huge number of teaching hours”.
GCSE results day already revealed that English and maths pass rates were down this year, with much of this drop driven by students 17 or older who were retaking.
Of students aged 16 this year, 71.2 per cent achieved a grade 4 or above in English language, 72 per cent in maths, and 73.7 per cent in English literature.
How far students were from the grade 4
FFT’s analysis, based on around 29,000 students from 1,500 schools, found boys are slightly more likely not to get the needed grade 4 than girls.
Of the students who fell short, nearly half achieved a grade 4 or above in one of English or maths. And furthermore, 11 per cent got a grade 3 in both subjects.
However, 38 per cent of the students who did not achieve the standard got less than a grade 3 in both subjects.
Less than half of students who did not achieve the standard from disadvantaged backgrounds passed one subject or got a grade 3 in both. This is compared with 64 per cent of their more affluent peers.
Boys were more likely to achieve below a grade 3 in both subjects, and less likely to pass one subject.
Students were more likely to pass English than maths - though this is almost entirely driven by girls.
Full official statistics will be released later this year.
A Department for Education spokesperson said having a good standard of English and maths “is key to a good education, future career options and to ensure rising standards”.
The spokesperson added that the government is committed to supporting students to get the required grades, and the curriculum review will look at how “we can best support” students who do not achieve a grade 4 in English and maths.
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