By now, students, parents, teachers, leaders and headteachers (and everyone in between) have had the chance to digest the torrent of new guidance that was released following the decision to cancel GCSE and A-level exams on 18 March. Yesterday, Ofqual published its consultation response on the process for this year. 

We now know that teachers will submit an estimated grade, we know that schools and colleges will be asked to rank students within those grades and we know that a calculation will take place (taking into account the previous performance of individual centres and other factors).

An already emotional and anxiety-inducing occasion, August results day will likely provide even more heightened emotions for all involved in 2020.

More: GCSEs are cancelled - so what's next?

Background: How to teach GCSE for resit students remotely

Opinion: 'We cannot forget Year 11s: they deserve better'

Resitting in college

But what of the next steps? What will be the impact for those who don’t achieve the much-celebrated grade 4 or above? 

Nearly a third of all students do not achieve a grade 4 or above in English and/ or maths at key stage 4. Many of these students will then study towards resitting GCSE English and/ or maths in a post-16 setting, with less than 30 per cent of students gaining a grade 4+ in GCSE English, and 20 per cent in GCSE maths.

After we have submitted estimates and ranks, and seen off results day, the FE sector must surely start to contemplate what results will look like in 2021 with a resit cohort who have missed nearly a third of Year 11. For those already resitting in FE, where attendance is historically much lower, how much of 2019-20 will they have missed?

Ask anyone within the FE sector about the biggest challenges faced when trying to support GCSE resit students and one of the primary factors named will always be student apathy towards English, maths, both or academia in general. With many students and parents convinced that the grade they will be awarded is a direct result of teacher prediction, the impact this could have on young people is immeasurable.

For those in FE resitting for the first, second or third time, how many will feel that (having battled apathy and invested in English and maths, building relationships with teachers along the way) their efforts were wasted and they were wrong to trust their teachers?

Many will point to the distance learning that has taken place and give examples of the positive engagement students have shown. Distance learning and online tuition are fabulous tools, and we are finally beginning to unlock their potential, but there is a long way to go before we refine these tools and it is no replacement for face-to-face teaching.

Even for those who achieve a grade 4+, those going into an apprenticeship or even employment, how much will their knowledge, skills and application of English and maths suffer as a result of missing so much time in the classroom?

With funding already constrained in FE, the coronavirus pandemic will stretch budgets further. The government has pledged that it will support colleges at this time, but more is needed. With the impact this will have on young people, and their English and maths skills, it may finally be time that the government decides to fully fund English and maths in post-16 education.

With the government and Ofqual seemingly at loggerheads over an additional autumn series of resits (let alone those exams not scheduled for resits at this time), it appears there are more discussions on the horizon. Additionally, principals and headteachers have already voiced concern over the workload this would cause. With some Year 11 students expecting to sit 30+ exams in May/June, how will they manage this workload in September-November, while beginning more independent study at A level or a vocational discipline?

Whatever the answer, the focus must first turn to English and maths and supporting students to master the skills that they will all use in their future.

An idealist view, maybe, but with British 16- to 24-year-olds ranking among the lowest for literacy in the developed world, it may also be time to engage with and develop English and maths skills with all students in the post-16 sector, using our newfound and widespread digital literacy.

The author is head of English and maths at a college in England