Education secretary John Swinney has been saying for months that the plan is for the 2021 exams to go ahead - but did we learn today that they are about to be cancelled?
There was a huge amount of ground covered in his appearance today at the Scottish Parliament’s Education and Skills Committee, yet one moment felt particularly telling.
Swinney had just answered a question about the workload implications if teachers have to plan both for exams and whatever contingency plans are in place if they are cancelled once again, and whether he could provide clarity for teachers on whether this “twin-track” approach will be around for the whole school year.
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After making some reassuring noises about not wanting to add to teachers’ workload, it looked like things were about to move on - until Swinney voluntarily returned to the question, which had been posed by Scottish Greens education spokesperson Ross Greer (who backs the cancellation of the 2021 exams).
Here’s what the education secretary said: “Forgive me, I should also have said, Mr Greer asked if I was in a position to say anything now on that question. I’m not in a position just now to say anything definitive, but I do want to be in a position to be definitive before the October break, to provide that clarity to members of the teaching profession, and to pupils.”
Logic would suggest that there is only one way to be definitive: to cancel next year’s Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) exams. It’s impossible to definitively say that exams will take place: ultimately, no amount of determination about that being the case will stand in the way of a resurgent pandemic, if it happens to coincide with exams season next spring.
Many schools break up for the holidays on 2 October, with others following the week after, so it appears there will be a decision on exams in a little over two weeks, at the latest.
Teachers have, of course, been waiting impatiently for SQA guidance on 2020-21 exams and courses, which were initially promised in the week beginning 31 August, albeit before the SQA knew there would be 23,000 responses to a 10-day consultation on the proposals.
Today, however, the education secretary revealed that he had pressed the pause button on publication of the confirmed changes, which would now not appear until after a review of this year’s SQA results debacle by Professor Mark Priestley; that review and its recommendations, we learned today, should be received by Mr Swinney at the end of September.
Meanwhile, Mr Swinney flagged up the “very real risk” of more disruption for schools and colleges this year, and that there was “no way of knowing what circumstances we will face” during the planned 2021 exams season next spring.
He stressed that the SQA and the Covid-19 Education Recovery Group “are looking at contingencies” if exams do not take place, which he said was “especially relevant as we are currently seeing a disturbing increase in the number of cases of coronavirus”.
It felt as if the mood music was changing, that the education secretary was starting to float the idea of no exams. Just last week some media outlets were excitedly reporting that he was categorically ploughing ahead with exams, when in truth he was only repeating the default position of several months that, all being well, exams are Plan A. Now, it seems, Plan B is about to be unveiled.
The SQA guidance for 2020-21 will now come out at around the same time as Professor Priestley’s review - we had previously reported concerns that the initial plan for the SQA to publish several weeks before the review made no sense. The education secretary looks like he is getting his ducks in a row before the latest of several monumental announcements in this year of coronavirus.
Whatever the health and pedagogical factors for cancelling exams, you can also see the political sense for the Scottish government. Doing away with exams this year - and perhaps in the longer term - does not seem as outlandish a prospect as it did a few months ago, with many influential headteachers calling for just that, and it would provide some much-need clarity amid all the Covid uncertainty.
An alternative reality could see the government carrying on regardless with exams until, in the worst-case scenario, newly enforced Covid regulations force national cancellation or - perhaps even a bigger headache - a series of local cancellations.
And remember, even though the education secretary has repeatedly suggested starting exams later than usual next year, they are still scheduled to start on 26 April. That’s just 11 days before Scottish Parliament elections whose outcome could be pivotal in the question of Scottish independence; the last thing the SNP government needs around that time is another exams fiasco.
After today, it feels more likely than ever that there won’t be any SQA exams in 2021 - and now we know that could be confirmed within the next few weeks.
Henry Hepburn is news editor at Tes Scotland. He tweets @Henry_Hepburn
