The disadvantage gap between poorer pupils and their more affluent peers will never close if current trends continue, warns a report published today.

The report by the Education Policy Institute (EPI) finds that while in its last annual report, modelling based on the last five years showed “it would take over 500 years for the disadvantage gap to be eliminated at secondary level in English and maths”, “this year the data suggests an even more extreme conclusion: the gap is not closing”.

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The report finds that if current trends from the last five years continue, the gap will never close. 

It states: “Over the last five years, our headline measure of the gap at secondary level has not changed. If this were to continue, the gap would never close.”

It adds: “Each year, we report on how the country is fairing in terms of tackling inequality in the English education system. This year the message is clear: the gap will never close without systemic change.”

Disadvantaged pupils are behind their peers by 18.1 months of learning by the time they finish their GCSEs - the same gap as five years ago, says the report.

The EPI also found that the gap at primary school had increased for the first time since 2007, while at secondary and early years level, the gap increased in 2018 and “has since stabilised at these higher levels”.

And the gap for the most persistently disadvantaged pupils - those eligible for free school meals for 80 per cent or more of their schooling - has increased in every year but one since 2014.

The gap for persistently disadvantaged pupils at GCSE for English and maths - 23 months - is over twice the size of the gap for the least persistently disadvantaged pupils, eligible for free school meals for less than 20 per cent of their schooling.

The report finds that the high persistence (persistently disadvantaged) group has “occupied a growing share of the disadvantaged group since 2017”, which “suggests that the slowing of progress in closing the gap is being driven in part by a compositional rise in persistent poverty among disadvantaged pupils”.

In 2017, 34.8 per cent of disadvantaged pupils were high persistence, compared with 36.7 per cent in 2019.

The report adds that the gap has also grown for medium persistence and low persistence pupils, so a rise in the proportion of high persistence pupils does not explain worsening trends overall.

“Factors affecting disadvantaged pupils as a whole - including the rise in poverty depth over the two decades and the squeeze on per-pupil school funding and other public services since 2010 - are likely to have contributed,” the report says.

The report concludes: “This year’s annual report provides concerning evidence that progress in narrowing educational inequalities has ground to halt.

“While educational standards and overall attainment has been maintained since the previous year (and even increased slightly at secondary school), the gap between disadvantaged pupils and their non-disadvantaged peers has stopped closing.

“This was the worrying position from which the school system entered the many challenges of the pandemic and lockdown in 2020, which are widely expected to worsen disadvantage gaps.

‘Deeply concerning’

David Laws, executive chairman of the EPI, said: “This report highlights that in spite of the government’s aspiration to ‘level up’ opportunity, the education gap between poor children and the rest is no longer closing, for the first time in around a decade.

“Before the Covid crisis, disadvantaged children were around 1.5 years of learning behind other pupils, and this figure seems almost certain to have increased since the closure of schools.

“It is deeply concerning that our country entered the pandemic with such a lack of progress in this key area of social policy, and the government urgently needs to put in place new policy measures to help poor children to start to close the gap again.”

Professor Becky Francis, chief executive of the Education Endowment Foundation (EEF), said: “Today’s EPI report again shows that the attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils and their more affluent peers continues to blight our education system. As our research shows, this gap is likely to have widened considerably as a result of school closures.

“It is more important than ever that teachers are empowered to make use of evidence-informed approaches and that schools are supported at every level to meet the needs of socio-economically deprived students.”

Russell Hobby, chief executive of Teach First, said: “It’s devastating to see that progress in closing the attainment gap over the last decade is stuck - especially as the effects of Covid-19 are set to see it grow even further. This growing inequality is robbing young people of their futures. 

“We need to act urgently and stand behind the teachers and schools tirelessly fighting this injustice. This means prioritising investment in schools serving low-income areas - where they face bigger challenges on a daily basis. Only then will we be able to build a fairer, thriving future for every child, not just some.”  

Loic Menzies, director of the Centre for Education and Youth, said: “Today’s report from the Education Policy Institute shows that despite a decade of radical education reform, equity in education remains an elusive dream. 

Now is the time to recognise that school policies alone cannot create the fair opportunities every child deserves. Instead, the government now needs to commit to levelling up the full range of services that children and their families depend on.”