On the classic Won’t Get Fooled Again by The Who, Roger Daltrey famously introduced “the new boss, same as the old boss”. The lyrics are a criticism of power but also a criticism of revolution. Amid all the talk of the new normal and the need for colleges to be transformed, it pays to reflect carefully before making any big changes as a result of Covid-19.

The prime minister’s chief adviser, Dominic Cummings, has a keen interest in superforecasting, so I thought I would check out his guru Philip Tetlock’s bestseller on the subject for tips on predicting the post-Covid world.

The literature on the secrets of superforecasters is remarkably consistent. The best are intelligent (but not geniuses), they are mathematically skilled but in an intuitive way, they remain emotionally and morally detached to stay objective, they describe forecasts using probabilities because they know the world is complex, and they tend to start with an anchor forecast then frequently adjust with new information. This is key because it prevents forecasts being swayed too much by the most recent change of data or events or opinion.

News: 1 in 8 college staff leave within a year, survey finds

Need to know: 10 things we learned from today’s NAO report on college finance

More by Ian Pryce: It’s time we examined our motives on assessments

To read some lockdown forecasts, you’d think everything has changed forever. Everyone will work at home, most learning will be online, cities will be abandoned, coffee shops and live music will be replaced by home espresso makers and streamed Zoom concerts from Ed Sheeran’s kitchen. 

A superforecaster would be more cautious. They would conclude that by forcing everyone to use online shopping, the relative share of purchases made that way might increase faster than has already been happening in recent years. Other long-term trends may accelerate, like the demise of mainstream print media. But most trends will be slightly interrupted, and few reversed.

College students want face-to-face learning

To help to identify any changes in expectations of our college, we surveyed students, parents and employers during lockdown. Responses confirmed that revolution was unwelcome. Despite 40 per cent of students and parents being concerned about travelling to college on public transport or crowding in social and communal areas, they overwhelmingly wanted things to be just as before - there was 89 per cent support for a full timetable in full rooms, with programmes of study that provided enrichment and opportunities to meet new people.  

There was an acceptance that Covid-19 meant some learning might be remote but they hoped it would be minimal and temporary. Only a small minority (25 per cent) welcomed less face-to-face engagement, even among our adult and higher education students. 

Of course, these responses may simply reflect our traditional markets (if you enjoy online learning, you might not enrol with us), but they show clearly the power and popularity of the familiar. All this suggests that we should be cautious in making any significant change. It is often said that people fear change but then point out that we live in a world of continuous change. The reality is that people accept change but fear discontinuity. Evolution is preferred to revolution, and that is the route we plan to adopt.

To earn the sobriquet “superforecaster”, you need to show a track record of accuracy.  Superforecasters are asked very specific time-bound questions. 

Will the price of gold rise above a certain price by the end of 2020? What is the probability that the Belarus president will step down in the next three months?

This prevents wrongly claiming success in hindsight. I can correctly predict a rise in the stock market if I don’t tell you when. Even a stopped clock is right twice each day. 

Superforecasting the future of FE

As a sector, we are currently being asked what colleges might look like in the future. The discipline of superforecasting could help here, especially using a specific time frame. It can also help us to plan more generally and not overreact to the latest policy or proposal. It seems highly probable that the future college will not be too different to the present, but posing, and thinking hard about, key questions may help with navigation.

Will the proportion of young people progressing to college at 16-18 be higher or lower in 2023? Will adult learning reduce by more than 10 per cent in the same period? Will colleges have more or fewer advanced or HE students? Will the number of colleges fall below 100 in England by 2025? Will study programmes be bigger or smaller? What is the probability that remote learning will form more than 30 per cent of a study programme? Will the gap between school and college teacher pay shrink?

Perhaps not surprisingly, the best superforecasters are generalists able to successfully predict answers in areas where they have no initial expertise or knowledge.

I would love to see our sector pose a series of specific questions and invite all comers to declare their answers (with their assumptions). It could be fascinating and helpful. Maybe we could persuade Tes to have a Superforecaster of the Year category added to the annual FE Awards. Maybe we could even get Dominic Cummings to present it. 

Ian Pryce is principal and CEO of the Bedford College Group