January is three months away. This January, we will be in the depths of winter, with a weak economy and a blizzard of job losses.

It feels a long time away, but it's important to remember: many of the 16- to 18-year-olds currently wanting a job who are outside of full-time education, an apprenticeship, a Kickstart opportunity and a work placement as part of a traineeship could still be waiting for one.

The reason isn't to do with the level of financial incentives paid to employers to offer labour market opportunities to 16- to 18-year-olds. They are incredibly generous. Employers, for instance, will be paid £3,000 to create a job with an apprenticeship.

The stark reality is that the vast majority of employers in the vast majority of sectors will be firing, not hiring, leading up to the new year and beyond it. 

News: Colleges must deliver on pay increases for staff, says UCU

More: Could we see a rise in apprenticeship gap years?

Background: Youth unemployment could rise by 600,000

We can expect redundancies to gather pace from the end of October when the job retention scheme is replaced by the job support scheme and the job support bonus.

A looming youth unemployment crisis

Although the job retention scheme has helped to retain jobs for 16- to 24-year-olds – including those not in full-time education – young people are expected to fare less well under the less generous job support scheme and the job support bonus. 

We already have evidence of falling apprenticeship starts for 16- to 17-year-olds, which usually provide employment and training for 55,000 young people. We can also expect many of the 55,000 16- to 17-year-olds who typically find jobs without apprenticeships to be struggling to find one today, let alone three months from now.

The time between Christmas and new year is a period for reflection. We can imagine parents and guardians of 16- to 18-year-olds still without an apprenticeship, Kickstart job or work placement to be at their wits' end.

Some informed parents might say, "Try the local college and ask if they can offer you something." Others might not have their local college uppermost in their minds.

January is not usually a time when recruitment into full-time courses for 16- to 18-year-olds is high. But this will not be a normal January. 

We therefore ask the Department for Education and the Association of Colleges to work together over the next 13 weeks to develop a plan ready to increase enrolments on to full-time courses at the start of the new year.

Colleges need to enrol students in the new year

“We are here for you this new year” should be the message.

What distinguishes college principals from leaders of other post-16 institutions is that they never willingly turn away 16- to 18-year-olds who want to come back to study.

True, there will be challenges, but with the right planning, funding and financial support for parents and young people themselves, colleges can be there for 16- to 18-year-olds this January.

Colleges will face the challenge of accommodating more 16- to 18-year-olds on full-time courses at a time when social distancing not only remains in place but intensifies.

Extra capital investment for additional teaching space should be released immediately. And the DfE should pay the cost of extra enrolments in January for 16- to 18-year-olds on an in-year rather than lagged basis. 

Integration of students on to maths and English GCSE resit courses should be possible from January but cramming a three-term vocational course into two terms could be more problematic. Special provision should, therefore, be made for shorter duration "bridging courses" requiring full-time study from January until the end of the academic year but funded as if they were 450 guided learning hours per year. 

Funding rules for providers should be flexible to avoid stifling innovation. Full-time, two-term bridging courses could facilitate progression on to level 3 courses next September or act as a gateway into jobs if the labour market picks up from the spring onwards.

Parental entitlements 

Parents with 16- to 18-year-olds returning to full-time, non-advanced further education in January will be entitled to means-tested child benefit (currently £20.15 per week for the first child).

More working parents, however, could be hit by falling incomes as hours are reduced to save jobs or if they become unemployed. As a result, more parents will be eligible for universal credit. For those families claiming universal credit with a 16- to 18-year-old returning to full-time education in January, child allowances are worth £283.35 per month.

These entitlements should be actively communicated to parents by a joint campaign by the DfE, HMRC and Department for Work and Pensions from November onwards. More specifically, the DfE should ask the Treasury to increase funding over and above the commitment made in the "Plan for Jobs" published in July for the 16-19 bursary grant.

Coming back to full-time study will not suit every out-of-work 16- to 18-year-old. But if all other options are closed in January, it might suit some.

Young people themselves will need to accept that there might be a mixture of on-site teaching and online study at home, and, for those who need it, a willingness to resit their maths and English GCSEs. If all this seems rather daunting, we should remember that one more 16- to 18-year-old in full-time education is one less unemployed 16- to 18-year-old. 

John Widdowson is former principal of New College Durham and Mark Corney is a post-16 policy consultant