With the return to school on the horizon, many leaders will be busy ensuring they have the necessary measures in place to keep staff and students safe from Covid on their return.

Of course, though, there is always the risk that infections will occur - whether caused through in-school transmission or with staff and students being infected outside of school. If this happens, the chance for case numbers to spike among a school population will be high.

As such, in July the government urged schools to have ‘outbreak management plans’ ready for any such situation - without specifying what number of cases would be considered an outbreak.

Now, though, some hard numbers have come through in the latest contingency framework document which outlines what is considered an outbreak and what to do if this occurs. Here’s a breakdown of the key elements.

The thresholds for action

The guidance sets out two main thresholds where educational settings may have to take “extra action” to tackle an apparent Covid outbreak. They are if:

 • five children, pupils, students or staff, who are likely to have mixed closely, test positive for Covid-19 within a 10-day period; or

• 10 per cent of children, pupils, students or staff who are likely to have mixed closely test positive for Covid-19 within a 10-day period.

Meanwhile, for special schools and residential settings, the threshold is even lower again with action required if just “two children, pupils, students and staff, who are likely to have mixed closely, test positive for Covid-19 within a 10-day period”.

What is perhaps most striking about this is how low these numbers are - especially for secondary school where many settings have well over 1,000 students and hundreds of staff members.

As such the likelihood of five cases occurring across a 10-day period seems reasonably high - especially given recent warnings that young people are becoming one of the main drivers of Covid infections.

Dan Morrow, the CEO of the Dartmoor Academy Trust, certainly thinks the low numbers could impact settings like his quite quickly: “For our large secondary schools with 1,500-plus pupils, this is going to represent a significant challenge, most especially with the testing in place for return.”

For primary settings, the number is perhaps a touch more reasonable, with primary headteacher Amanda Wilson saying she would probably take action even before those numbers were reached.

“I would be starting to be more alert if three members of staff or pupils tested positive within the 10-day period,” she says.

“It’s a bit like when there’s an outbreak of chickenpox: once you start getting a few cases, you know there’s a possibility that more could be on the way so you start taking the necessary precautions, which may include contacting the local PHE.”

Even so, given these low numbers across any setting it could well be the case those outbreak management plans are needed sooner than many may have anticipated.

Close contacts only

However, the text above from the guidance does contain the caveat that cases monitored should also be checked to see if they have occurred between those “likely to have mixed closely”.

In school estate where people more freely between halls, classrooms, corridors, entrance and exits points it could be said everyone is mixing closely. However, the guidance does offer some clarity on where this may be especially likely:

• a form group or subject class

• a friendship group mixing at breaktimes

• a sports team

• a group in an after-school activity

As such it could be that school leaders decide that although over five cases have been recorded, some of the individuals involved are highly unlikely to have mixed - such as a teacher who did not teach or come into contact with a pupil, or two staff members who were never together.

This will no doubt come down to leaders’ discretion - and how confident they are relying on the memory of a teacher or pupil about who they have been in close contact with.

Furthermore, it should be noted too that any back-to-school testing that catches cases does not count towards these thresholds listed above and therefore should not require extra action.

What does ‘extra action’ mean

What, though, should you do if term is well underway, the case threshold is reached and you know the cases are linked?

The guidance suggests a few ideas, including improving ventilation - so long as it would not “significantly impact thermal comfort”; extra testing,; enhanced cleaning of “touch points”, such as door handles; and, perhaps most notably, holding activities such as assemblies or classes outdoors.

This last idea was not received well, with Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, calling the suggestion schools could move outside as temperatures plummet a “total fudge”.

Morrow notes too though that most of these measures will likely already be in place in schools as part of their back-to-school plans anyway. 

As such it may be that more onerous requirements are required, such as mask wearing, social distancing or even remote learning.

Before it comes to that, though, schools can seek advice from public health authorities who can advise on what actions may help and should also have a wider understanding of the local situation on Covid cases which may inform a response: “A director of public health or an [health protection team] may give settings advice reflecting the local situation.”

This involvement could include actually raising the threshold for extra action if the local situation is under control - negating the need to think about outdoor lessons or opening more windows.

Or they may urge implementing all the measures available if the local situation is known to be on the rise.

Variants of concern

One other key thing leaders should be aware of from the document is that settings of all types are told they should seek public health advice if a pupil, student, child, or staff member is admitted to hospital with Covid-19.

This is because it could indicate either “increased severity of illness or a new variant of concern”.

To report this, you can either phone the DfE helpline (0800 046 8687, and select option 1), or follow existing local arrangements with authorities.

If an issue is found settings “may be offered public health support in managing risk assessments and communicating with staff and parents” about the situation.

This is certainly a notable requirement but one that makes sense to ensure any new variants are identified quickly - as we have all seen how new strains, most notable the Delta variant, can move the goalposts on coronavirus rapidly.

Communications

A final point that the new threshold guidance raises is the importance of having good communications with parents and other stakeholders around any changes in requirements if an outbreak is identified.

This is because, as Morrow notes, many will likely be unaware of the guidance from the government on the thresholds for when action may be taken so it will be down to schools to communicate this.

“I would question whether the effects of this [low threshold numbers] will be signalled to the general public enough to avoid schools bearing the brunt of the implications of enacting any responses to this.”

From a practical point of view this may mean ensuring communication documents are drafted ahead of time and contact information is up-to-date at the start of term to ensure information can be sent out promptly.

The hope will be of course that the above is rarely needed, with vaccinations reducing cases - especially with 16- and 17-year-olds next in line for jabs. But as the past 18 months have shown, nothing can be taken for granted in the pandemic and so being prepared for possible change is most definitely the best course of action.