A brief pandemic “surge” in teaching applications has already all but evaporated, a headteacher’s leader will warn today. 

Paul Whiteman, the general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, will be speaking later today at the Schools and Academies Show in a discussion on securing “post-pandemic” teacher supply. 

Speaking ahead of the event, Mr Whiteman said that lessons learned from the 2008 economic recession “suggested that as the pandemic eases and economic conditions improve, the rise in applications would melt away”.

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He added that these predictions based on previous years have “proved to be broadly accurate”.

In June 2020, Nick Gibb, the then schools minister, revealed that teacher training applications had increased by 12 per cent.

However, UCAS data published in September 2021 appears to mark an end to this increase, with applications to initial teacher training (ITT) dropping by almost 8 per cent (from 52,490 to 48,300) in contrast to September 2020.

In June, Jack Worth, an economist from the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER), also warned that the surge in ITT applications “could be over”. 

Mr Whiteman also highlighted the fact that there is “significant regional variation” in the data and the differences between subjects. 

He added: “Of course, the supply of new teachers is only one part of the picture here and we should also be deeply concerned about the numbers considering leaving the profession.

“There is clear evidence that more teachers are now actively thinking about leaving the profession than was the case prior to the pandemic.”

Mr Whiteman cited the government’s handling of the pandemic and staff’s feelings of unfair treatment as a “major factor”.

School leaders retention at risk

He also warned that these factors were also affecting school leaders, and said the ”[School Teachers’ Review Body] has made repeated warnings about leadership supply”.

He continued: “NAHT’s research consistently shows that too few middle leaders want to become senior leaders, and too few assistants and deputies want to become heads.

“Nearly half of the school leaders surveyed by NAHT at the end of last year said that, as a result of the pandemic, they were less likely to remain in school leadership for as long as initially planned.

“There is a real risk that we will see an exodus of leaders from the profession once the Covid crisis is over. 

“Despite the increased pressure on them, school leaders have stuck to their task. But unless the government acts urgently to make school leadership an attractive proposition for teaching professionals, the school leadership supply pipeline is going to run dry.”