Apprenticeships and skills minister Gillian Keegan’s weekly message to the FE sector today contained her thanks and farewell to further education commissioner Richard Atkins.

After four-and-a-half years in post, his tenure comes to an end now - and he leaves behind an FE sector that is quite different to the one he found in 2016. He set this out himself in an interview with Tes a few weeks ago.

He told me that having taken up the job in the midst of area-based reviews, a process that led to a number of mergers, he had assumed that once those were completed, “I would go part-time and there would just be a few colleges that would get into serious trouble occasionally”. The job had then been “reshaped”, with the introduction of diagnostic assessments and a range of schemes, such as the National Leaders of FE. “I liked that, because it built a different relationship with a lot of colleges and it also meant we were getting into places earlier,” he said.

Richard Atkins: ‘I am more optimistic now than when I started’

More: FE commissioner to stay in job ‘up to 12 more months’

Background: FE White Paper - government to ‘overhaul’ accountability

The years and months that followed saw the first colleges enter education administration, as well as the departure of a number of high-profile leaders after their institutions hit hard times. They saw numerous institutions hit the headlines because of their dire financial position, and reports from the commissioner’s team highlighting significant shortcomings in institutional leadership.

The FE commissioner’s role in the future of colleges

Nevertheless, Mr Atkins said he was “optimistic” about the sector he was leaving behind. The White Paper, the focus on further education - particularly from education secretary Gavin Williamson - and the skills needs of a post-Covid economy leave colleges in a strong position, he believes. On top of that, he said his team had found that colleges were seeking out help earlier, rather than waiting until they were forced into formal intervention. “It is a much more grown-up and more sensible relationship,” said Mr Atkins. “And we get fewer grade 4 Ofsted inspections. I am encouraged by all of that.”

It is impossible to work out if that optimism is well-placed. We do know, of course, that colleges’ financial pressures are not going to lift - the reaction to the government’s announcement of an adult education budget clawback for colleges falling short of a 90 per cent delivery target was a good gauge of the mood on that. Add to that the impact of the coronavirus on both colleges and college partners…it is unlikely to be plain sailing.

We also know, of course, that the role of the commissioner will be different - moving from the Department for Education into the Education and Skills Funding Agency. So who is the next FE commissioner going to be? The likelihood is that we are days rather than weeks from finding out.

Mr Atkins told me that he could see a college principal taking on the role - ideally someone with recent experience. That is, of course, his own background. And if the relationship of the sector with the commissioner is to be a more collegiate one, where open and honest conversations can take place, maybe that makes sense.

I suspect it would be more acceptable to FE leaders than an “outsider”. And there is certainly no shortage of experienced leaders in the sector who could take a national leadership role - some have already shown they are able and willing to look beyond their own college or even region, and support a broader vision for the sector.

I hope whoever is appointed by the government is able to lead the commissioner’s team to a scenario where they are supportive of the sector and its leadership - and I don’t mean let them get away with shortsighted or misguided leadership decisions. I mean real support. Because, as much as I want to share Richard Atkins’ optimism for colleges, I doubt there is nothing but blue skies ahead. Colleges will hit difficulties. And so the question is this: who will be the one picking up the phone at that point - and how welcome is that phone call likely to be?