After the cancellation of GCSE exams on 18th March, we are now less than a week away from seeing the results of the unparalleled ranking and estimation process. After the surprise results U-turn north of the border, exam boards, Ofqual and the Department for Education are putting the final touches to the process by which GCSE grades will be awarded - all whilst dealing with the continued backlash against A-level results.

As parents, students, teachers and leaders wait with a mix of emotions for the publication of results, schools and colleges grow more concerned about the accuracy and fairness of the process, particularly in light of the A-level turmoil. Many looked to statistical moderation as a means to ensure effective predictions, but there is a growing sense that this will not provide the accuracy that had been hoped for.

Background: Call for GCSE resit students to be awarded their teacher grades

A-level results: Will learners get the ‘right’ grades? 

Opinion: What if teacher grades are more accurate than exams?

In June, education data analyst FFT Education Datalab released its findings. Starting on 28 April, with completion on 1 June, FFT Education Datalab completed a statistical moderation on preliminary estimated grades. This moderation also allowed schools to compare their potential results against other centres and achievement trends in previous results.

With over 1,900 schools involved in this statistical moderation, this data and analysis is the most accurate analysis of data available before the August results are published. They paint a picture of improved success rates among students, and suggest a range of challenges for 2020-21.

Comparing the data only to published 2019 school data (and making it clear that this is only for subjects where 2019 and 2020 data is available), the headline conclusion is that the 2020 (teacher-assessed) grades are higher than those for 2019, for all subjects.

The build-up to GCSE results day

With the majority showing a difference of between 0.3 and 0.6 grades, some of the big changes are seen in computer science (with a jump from the average awarded grade of 4.5 in 2019, to an estimated grade of 5.4 in 2020) and English language (5.1 from 4.7 in 2019), with suggested sizeable improvements in drama and PE, when comparing 2019 awarded data to 2020 estimates. Conversely, much less noticeable rises came in English literature, combined science, religious education and maths.

If these results were to be realised, there is also increased achievement for higher grades, with more students achieving grades 7, 8 and 9 in predicted 2020 grades than achieved in 2019. Though how this fits after announcements on A-level results is very much open to interpretation.

With the majority of overall subjects showing increases at all grades, according to the data submitted to FFT, Ofqual and exam boards potentially faced a real challenge in moderating, standardising and calculating grades to keep them in line with previous results.

Using A-level results as a marker, we could see much less widespread rises in achievement than previously thought. Further complicated by student ranking and the difficulty in doing this in large FE settings (some of which submitted data for 5,000 or more students for each subject), many in FE will be interested to learn the exact parameters of the algorithm.

With initial reports suggesting that Ofqual and exam boards would standardise in part using 2017-2019 data for A levels and 2018 and 2019 data for GCSEs, there had been rumours that all calculated grades would be cut by one-third (however, this was swiftly dismissed). Keeping a level playing field during such an uncertain time will be extremely difficult - especially after the A-level announcements, which have seen disproportionate grade reductions to students in disadvantaged areas. This is also before factoring in appeals and what role mock exams will play.

There are, of course, additional factors to consider (for computer science, projects can now be completed in Year 10, leaving all of Year 11 for exam preparation), but if these results are realised, the potential consequences are far-reaching and long lasting.

Though teachers have created, set and marked a range of work since lockdown (with many continuing to give students work over the holidays), and regardless of the awarded grade, there are likely to be huge skills gaps for students who have missed over one third of the academic year. This will bring challenges for those entering FE (especially those who would have otherwise failed to achieve a grade 4 in English and/ or maths, and received additional support throughout FE), those entering sixth forms (who now attempt A levels having not completed GCSEs) and those entering employment.

As a caveat, there is no guarantee that schools submitted the same data that was sent to FFT Education Datalab, but it does at least give some indication of what is to come in the following week. Whatever results are released, the debate about how schools - and, of course, colleges - assess in future years will continue well into 2020-21.

The writer is a leader at an FE college in England