Prime minister Boris Johnson is expected to unveil a plan on Monday for reopening schools from 8 March based largely on the extent to which infection rates have fallen.

But what is a low enough infection rate for schools to reopen? In an accompanying article, we look at where England’s Covid rates are likely to be by 8 March and whether that is deemed safe.

Here we analyse how a range of other countries have approached this tricky balancing act. The data reveals that different governments have tackled this question very differently.

Analysis: Will England’s Covid rates be safe for 8 March school opening?

Related: Education and Covid-19: how other nations have fared

Revealed: When scientists think it will be safe to reopen schools

Lockdown: Ministers ‘told to ramp up’ school opening plans

Boris Johnson: We hope to reopen schools from 8 March

Wales and Scotland 

Both Wales and Scotland are reopening schools to the youngest pupils on Monday.

And infection rates in those countries at the time of writing are 89.9 per 100,000 and 104.2 per 100,000 respectively, based on the total number of cases for the most recent seven-day period provided by the Office for National Statistics.

This, of course, is close to the 100 per 100,000 threshold at which scientists have said it is safe to reopen schools.   

The rate in England for the most recent seven-day period is 142.8 per 100,000 and therefore may still be considered too high at present.

But experts have told Tes that rates are likely to fall to under 50 per 100,000 by 8 March, when the government hopes the wider return of pupils can begin.

But how does this compare across the world? While there are differences in the way some countries report on and test for new infections, it is evident that a wide variety of approaches have been taken.

Canada

Just under half of schools in Ontario, Canada, have returned to “in-person learning” this week (following the other half that opened earlier this month) - and the rate of infections over the past week is less than a third of England’s rate, at 48 per 100,000, according to Canadian government statistics.

Education minister Stephen Lecce is reported as saying “Ontario is ready to reopen our schools because it’s safe” and that the decision was based on advice from local medical officers and Ontario’s top doctor, following “a consistent decline in key transmission rates”.

USA

In the United States, president Joe Biden has set a goal of having more than 50 per cent of the nation’s schools reopened by the 100th day of his presidency on 30 April.

The US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention has provided a roadmap for reopening schools during the pandemic, including the use of masks, hand washing and “respiratory etiquette”.

But because each state has been able to set its own rules for schools reopening, it is hard to say whether the school system was ever “closed”.

In the state of North Dakota, for example, which has the highest number of Covid cases in the US since the pandemic began, the decision as to whether to reopen schools has been left to districts, individual schools or local authorities (as is the case on most US states).

The rate of active cases in the state on 17 February was 90 per 100,000, using figures from the Worldometer website (which is the source of all infection rates* in the rest of this article, unless stated).

Japan

In Japan, when schools reopened on 18 May last year - with social distancing and reduced hours - based on the last seven days, there was an average of 66 new cases per day. 

Tes has calculated this to be an infection rate of just under 0.37 people per 100,000.

Uruguay

In Uruguay, when schools in the capital, Montevideo, reopened on 28 June last year (following the reopening of rural schools the previous month), there was a seven-day average of 8 new cases per day, which is 1.6 cases per 100,000.

New Zealand

In New Zealand, when schools reopened fully on 8 June, there was a seven-day average of one new case per day among a population of 5,002,100, which is a rate of 0.14 per 100,000.

France

And in France, schools fully reopened again on 22 June, when there was a seven-day average of 483 new cases per day which works out at a rate of 5.17 infected people per 100,000.

And in the UK, on 1 June, when primary schools in England reopened to certain year groups, there was a seven-day average of 1,422 new cases per day, which is a rate of 14.6 per 100,000.

And on 2 September last year, when schools fully reopened in England, estimates from the Office of National Statistics show the infection rate could have been 71 per 100,000.

A glimmer of hope for schools reopening on 8 March perhaps could be that the ONS statistics show the rate of infection in England is now less than a quarter the level it was on 4 January, when primary schools reopened for one day after Christmas (when it was 642.1 per 100,000, according to the ONS).

*Infection rates calculated using statistics from Worldometers.info are based on the seven-day moving average of daily new cases at the time of writing multiplied by seven (then divided by population and multiplied by 100,000). This is slightly different to the ONS rate per 100,000, which is based on the total number of cases over seven days.