Join the Tes panel of experts analysing the main outcomes for this year. 

We look at grade inflation in 2021, contingency plans for 2022 and the impact of A-level grades on equality. Joining the debate are:

• Jon Coles, chief executive of the United Learning Trust
• Leora Cruddas, chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts
• Zubaida Haque, commissioner on the (Lewis) Hamilton Commission and former director of the Runnymede Trust
• Barnaby Lenon, chair of the Independent Schools Council and former Ofqual advisory board member
• Alison Peacock, chief executive of the Chartered College of Teaching
• Roger Taylor, former chair of Ofqual

Resist discussing ‘grade inflation’

Alison Peacock of the Chartered College of Teaching says we should “resist talking about grade inflation” as grades are not comparable with other years.

She says teachers this year have only been able to “do their best in a local context...this year’s results need to stand alone.”

Rise in A and A* grades

But Jon Coles, chief executive of the United Learning trust, says that the rise in the top grades this year is “not a good place to be” (2.50 minutes in) and that this is a “consequence of a system that wasn’t well designed”, although he stresses this is not the fault of teachers themselves. 

He says other cohorts have faced a different grading standard to the class of 2021, and that previous and future cohorts will be in competition with them - this raises “very big questions about what we do next year”.

What about teacher bias?

Amid the discussions of inflation, Zubaida Haque, former interim director of the Runnymede Trust, points out that “we’re also ignoring issues around teacher bias” (from 6 minutes in).

She says teachers have had to compensate for “poor guidance” from Ofqual and the DfE but that teacher bias is a live issue.

But Leora Cruddas, chief executive of the Confederation of School Trusts, says that teachers undertook grading “fairly and honestly” this year and that Ofqual has not found evidence of bias in teacher-assessed grading in favour or against particular groups.

What about private schools’ A* boost?

Barnaby Lenon, chair of the Independent Schools Council, says we are seeing very “significant” levels of inflation (from 12 minutes) and that we could lose the understanding of what an A or A* looks like. 

The proportion of A*s rose by 3 times more at private schools than in state comprehensives in absolute terms this year - Mr Lenon says it’s “pretty obvious” that private schools, having better resources including better resources in pupils’ homes, “did have very good online teaching right from the beginning, as did a number of state schools - but not all”.

He says TAG grading was supposed to accommodate differential learning loss this year but would never have been able to do this completely and that this is borne out by the results.

What will happen to standards over the long term?

Roger Taylor, the former chair of Ofqual, says “we are now in territory where the grade boundaries are losing touch with the standards of work that we will want to establish as being top grades at A level” (from 15 minutes).

The only way to fix that is to “regrade”, he says, with a possible new grading system in 2023. 

Mr Coles adds that “the word on the street is” that the government may go back to the 2019 standard in “one fell swoop”, which he says would be a serious mistake. He says a numerical grading structure could help at A level, perhaps with seven grades, for example, a 9-3 grading scale. 

He says there needs to be proper thought about how to adapt exams for differential learning loss next year. The government’s recent consultation on 2022 exams didn’t address any of this, he says.

Is the attainment gap narrower than expected?

Ms Cruddas says there have been checks and balances and accountability this year and that in the context of a global pandemic that has affected disadvantaged pupils worst, the way grades were determined this year “may have prevented historic gaps from widening as much as they otherwise might have” from 27 minutes in.

Where’s the contingency plan?

The panel are unanimous in calling for a contingency plan for exams in 2022, with Ms Peacock saying not to plan is “remiss”.

Could schools keep more robust assessment records in case of further pandemic disruption, she asks? (From 31 minutes). And she adds that perhaps some regions might end up having teacher-assessed grades next year while others are examined - and that these would need to be valued equally highly to be fair.

And Mr Coles suggests a form of modular exam system to create “some separation and time between an early paper and a late paper” to reduce the possibility that any pupil would be unable to take any exam assessment at all.

Mr Taylor argues that it is important not to have pupils on “different tracks” however. He says grades should be awarded based on pupils’ circumstances and that while doing this nationally could lower standards, this should be addressed over the long term.

From 40 minutes in, Mr Coles and Dr Haque discuss whether Ofqual has conducted enough analysis of equalities this year.