The £350 million National Tutoring Programme is unlikely to be enough on its own to remedy the negative impact that Covid-19 disruption to education will have on disadvantaged pupils’ life chances and social mobility, research shows.

And this disruption will cost secondary students more than £11 billion in future lost earnings, according to the study conducted by London Economics for the Sutton Trust.

For last year’s GCSE cohort, the projected loss in earnings over a 20-year period, owing to school closures, would amount to £3,830 per student among those from lower socioeconomic backgrounds, the research finds.

This is three times higher than the predicted £1,150-per-student loss affecting those from more advantaged backgrounds.

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Maike Halterbeck, associate director at London Economics and one of the authors of the report, said: “There needs to be significant investment from the government to rectify these losses and to support the recent social mobility gains that have been achieved. This report provides the government with the economic evidence to support this much-needed investment.”

Coronavirus: The impact of school closures on disadvantaged pupils      

The overall economic cost of school closures is estimated by the study to be at least £1.6 billion for last year’s Year 11s - and in excess of £11 billion for all those in secondary school.

The researchers also predicted that the pandemic would have a significant negative impact on social mobility.

For example, the proportion of boys from lower socioeconomic backgrounds predicted to be among the highest earners in later life has dropped from 16 per cent to 15 per cent. For girls, the impact was slightly less pronounced.

To mitigate against these projections, the Sutton Trust is calling for “vast resources” to be targeted at disadvantaged pupils.

Sir Peter Lampl, founder and chairman of the Sutton Trust and chairman of the Education Endowment Foundation, which delivers the National Tutoring Programme, told Tes: “Now that schools have reopened, the scale of the impact that closures have had on learning - particularly for those from lower-income homes - is becoming clear. And as our research shows, these effects could be felt over decades, unless Herculean efforts are made to redress the balance.

“As an example of evidence-based policy, the National Tutoring Programme is a part of the solution. But we must be realistic. The challenge facing schools is immense and huge investment targeted at those students and schools who need it most is necessary. This academic year is likely to be highly disrupted for many, too, and schools need to be funded to manage this period, as well as to catch up from last year.

“Enormous - and long-term - investment in disadvantaged pupils’ learning makes both economic and educational sense.”

The charity would also like to see the pupil premium protected in real terms.

The report reads: “Efforts by the Department for Education to remedy the learning loss through the introduction of a £350 million National Tutoring Programme for up to 2 million disadvantaged pupils (ie, £175 per pupil on average) are welcome, and will be vital to mitigating the impact on the learning of many young people.

“However, given the scale of the challenge being faced, this is unlikely to be sufficient on its own to address the new challenges faced by disadvantaged young people, and further action will be needed to avoid long-term damage to their life chances and prospects for social mobility.”

The study also found disparities in the amount of learning loss during lockdown, depending on children’s backgrounds.

For example, a secondary school child from a more advantaged background experienced a 21 per cent loss in learning on average, compared with a 34 per cent average loss for those from a disadvantaged background, according to the findings.

This tallies with survey evidence from the National Foundation for Education Research estimating that the perceived learning loss for pupils in the most deprived schools was, on average, 3.7 months, compared to 2.4 months in the least deprived schools.

A DfE spokesperson said: “Now, more than ever, our focus is on levelling up the opportunities available to every young person in this country and we will do everything possible to make sure no one is left behind as a result of the impact of the coronavirus pandemic.

“We are investing heavily in initiatives aimed at closing the attainment gap, such as our £1 billion Covid catch-up fund, which includes £350 million targeted at the most disadvantaged pupils. Pupil Premium funding - worth around £2.4 billion annually - continues to benefit the most disadvantaged pupils.

“Our £90 million Opportunity Areas programme is focused on improving skills and outcomes for thousands of young people in some of the most disadvantaged parts of England.”