Back in August when John Swinney faced his first no-confidence vote, over the 2020 exams debacle - the next one came in March this year over another matter - Iain Gray, who was Labour’s education spokesperson at the time, called Mr Swinney a “part-time education secretary”.

Mr Gray was, of course, doing his utmost to make the argument for having Mr Swinney removed from the education brief - but that he had a point is hard to deny.

As deputy first minister and education secretary during a pandemic, Mr Swinney has been spinning a lot of plates. And not always successfully.

In the coming weeks, then, with a third of Cabinet secretary posts vacant and a reshuffle inevitable, will first minister Nicola Sturgeon opt to move on her so-called safe pair of hands?

Health secretary Jeane Freeman has retired as an MSP, as has constitution secretary (and former education secretary) Michael Russell, communities secretary (and former children and young people minister) Aileen Campbell and environment secretary Roseanna Cunningham.

On top of that, Angus Robertson - the SNP’s former Westminster leader, who took the seat of former Scottish Conservative leader Ruth Davidson - is an obvious candidate for a senior position.  

So, who is in the frame for education secretary, and for any junior education minister posts?

Scotland’s next education secretary: The main contenders

Angus Robertson

One of the big SNP success stories of the election was Mr Robertson overturning a Conservative majority of 610 seats in Ms Davidson’s former constituency, Edinburgh Central. He won 16,276 votes, giving him a 4,732 majority over the Tories’ Scott Douglas. Ms Davidson was not seeking re-election to Holyrood as she is taking up a seat in the House of Lords.

He seems a shoo-in for a senior post - but will it be education secretary?

Kate Forbes

The Skye, Lochaber and Badenoch MSP - who secured a huge majority in last week’s election - took on the finance secretary job after Derek Mackay’s spectacular fall from grace and is pegged by some to be the party’s next leader. Speaking to The Scotsman, an SNP source said she needed to be “humanised”, adding: “You can’t become first minister having only ever done the numbers - you have to do education or health.”

However, the source thought health the more likely option because “it’s far and away the biggest challenge”.

Whether health or education, the finance secretary post would still need to be filled. Mr Swinney, of course, would be a natural choice, given that he spent nine years holding Scotland’s purse strings.

Shirley-Anne Somerville

The Dunfermline MSP retained her seat in the election, doubling her majority in the process. She is currently the social security secretary but has also served as further education, higher education and science minister.

Richard Lochhead

The Moray MSP served in the Cabinet as rural affairs, food and environment secretary until 2016, when he resigned to help support his wife during a health battle.

He returned as further education, higher education and science minister in 2018.

Maree Todd

Previously a list MSP, Ms Todd saw off a strong challenge from the Lib Dems to win the Caithness, Sutherland and Ross seat last week. She was minister for children and young people in the last Parliament.

Jenny Gilruth

A former modern studies teacher and an MSP since 2016, Ms Gilruth - who has written for Tes Scotland - became minister for Europe, migration and international development in February 2020, but seems a long shot for the top education post at this stage.

Kaukab Stewart

With almost 30 years’ experience as a teacher, the Glasgow Kelvin MSP, who has just become the first woman of colour to be elected to Holyrood, may well be the teachers’ choice for the education secretary brief. However - despite Sturgeon’s clear delight at her election - such rapid promotion seems unlikely.

John Swinney

When Nicola Sturgeon appointed Mr Swinney to the education secretary role in 2016 it was about putting one of her big hitters in the post and demonstrating her commitment to education - remember she asked to be judged on closing the attainment gap?

Withdrawing him when only “limited” progress has been made could be seen as an admission of defeat.

There is speculation, too, that Mr Swinney might be reluctant to leave education because he feels the job is not finished.

Ross Greer

Greer has impressed many in the teaching profession during his time as the Scottish Greens’ education spokesperson, but even if the SNP were to enter into a formal coalition with the Greens, it appears unlikely that they would give their junior partners such a high-profile role - especially as some of his party’s ideas are probably too radical for the SNP to entertain. 

AN Other

Other SNP MSPs who have been talked up for ministerial posts this week include Mairi Gougeon, Gillian Martin, Kevin Stewart, Neil Gray and Màiri McAllan.

Pictures:

• Copyright holder: PA WIRE
• Copyright notice: PA Wire/PA Images

• Pictures by: Jane Barlow, Trevor Martin