The teacher estimates that replaced the exams this year were above historic attainment because “some teachers and lecturers may have been optimistic, given the circumstances”, the chief executive of Scotland’s exam body has said.
Fiona Robertson made the comment as it emerged that a quarter of teacher estimates had been changed as a result of the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) moderation process, with the majority of changes resulting in the estimate being lowered.
News: SQA results day: 25% of teacher estimates ‘adjusted’
Live blog: SQA results day 2020
Background: What you need to know results day 2020
Unions: Overturning teacher grades ‘would be disastrous’
Teacher’s take: On SQA exam results day, ‘there will be turmoil’
Opinion: Young people can still flourish despite missing exams
Advice: How to make appeals
She also said that teachers may have thought “correctly or incorrectly that this cohort of candidates may have achieved better grades” and added that she believed “teachers have delivered”.
Ms Robertson - after being asked in a media briefing this morning why teacher estimates were overinflated - said: “Of course there can be several reasons why estimates were above historic attainment which has been relatively stable over time - albeit, as I have also highlighted, there can be differences in attainment across subjects and over time for a number of reasons.
“We have said some teachers and lecturers may have been optimistic given the circumstances of this year and may have believed correctly or incorrectly that this cohort of candidates may have achieved better grades due to a range of factors. It’s quite difficult to be definitive about that.
“But I would also highlight, as I said at the start, we accepted three quarters of teacher estimates. I think teachers have delivered and I am very grateful to them for doing so in this exceptional year because, as I have also said, we could not have delivered without them - but we moderated in order to ensure fairness across Scotland and to maintain standard.”
This year teacher judgement was placed at the heart of the new SQA grading process that replaced the exams.
However, it was revealed this morning that 133,000 entries were adjusted from the initial estimate, around a quarter of all entries.
A total of 6.9 per cent of those estimates were adjusted up and 93.1 per cent were adjusted down, with 96 per cent of all adjusted grades changed by one grade.
Without moderation, pass rates at grades A to C compared to last year would have increased by 10.4 percentage points for National 5, by 14 percentage points for Higher and by 13.4 percentage points for Advanced Higher.
Ultimately this year the A to C pass rate was up across the board. The National 5 pass rate was 81.1 per cent (up from 78.2 per cent last year); the Higher pass rate this year was 78.9 per cent (up from 74.8 per cent last year); and the Advanced Higher pass rate was 84.9 per cent (up from 79.4 per cent last year).
*Tes Scotland will be live blogging throughout SQA results day 2020, on Tuesday 4 August. To find our coverage, go to the Scotland hub of the Tes website.
