One of the obvious knock-on effects of education secretary John Swinney’s decision to accept teacher estimates - or moderated grades if these were higher - was that more students would now have the results required to get into university.
This was acknowledged by Mr Swinney who, when making his statement to the Scottish Parliament on Tuesday last week, said no one should be “crowded out” of higher or further education, and that the Scottish government would “make provision for enough places in universities and colleges”.
So how many additional university places will be needed? What will it all cost? Which courses are likely to benefit? And why does the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) have a key role to play?
SQA results U-turn: The impact on university places
We take a look:
When will the Scottish government confirm how much extra funding universities are going to get?
The amount of funding will depend on the number of extra places that are needed. The rough rule of thumb is that funded places for undergraduate Scottish students cost an average of £7,000 to £7,500 per student, per year. But universities won’t be able to give the government a figure for the number of additional places needed until the SQA shares the revised results for this year, which, of course, are now based on teacher estimates, unless the moderation process resulted in the grade improving.
When will that happen?
The new results are supposed to be issued to schools by Friday 21 August and schools are to pass them on to their students - although, of course, many students will already know their teacher-estimated grades.
Tes Scotland understands that no date has been confirmed for sharing that data with universities. That means there could be a gap between students being officially awarded their teacher estimates and universities being able to act. That could mean more frustration for students, some of whom will already have gone through the experience of losing college and university places based on their original, SQA-moderated results.
However, when universities get that data set from the SQA they will know how many students missed out on a place because of their moderated grades, and are now entitled to a place based on their teacher-estimated grades. That will determine the number of extra places needed.
Is there any indication of the university courses likely to need additional places?
Not with any precision, but universities know that there was high demand for medicine and nursing this year due to increases in applications relative to last year - and Tes Scotland understands the same goes for teaching degrees. So the universities are predicting “big impact” for those courses - but, of course, taking more students on to these courses will be tricky and will also have implications for placements. This year placements in schools for student teachers have been delayed until after the October break.
How much is it all likely to cost?
In the aftermath of Mr Swinney’s statement on 11 August, a daily newspaper put the cost at between £20 million and £30 million, which it said universities were optimistic the government would pay because it would be a terrible move politically to do anything else. However, as highlighted above, until we know the number of extra places required, we don’t know how much all this will cost.
For how long will the impact of Mr Swinney’s U-turn be felt by universities?
Assuming students stay the length of their four- or five-year degree, student numbers will be inflated until the 2020 cohort works its way through, and out to graduation.
Also, S5 students may now have better grades than expected and be in a better position to apply for university next year - potentially leading to increases in student numbers next year, and more competition.