Ofsted is working on a new inspection framework. It is due for publication in January, after which it will be subject to public consultation.

But we already know it will feature a new focus on the curriculum, within a broader judgement of quality of education.

I welcome this. Since she became Her Majesty’s chief inspector, Amanda Spielman has taken a cautious and measured approach to the role, being guided by the evidence and following a mantra of “evolution not revolution”.

She has also put it explicitly on record that Ofsted has evidence that a lack of funding is affecting quality of provision in FE in places. She has even gone further - very unusually for the head of Ofsted - by saying that the base rate of education for 16- to 18-year-olds should be increased in the next spending review. 

Her recent speech at the Association of Colleges (AoC) conference in November was no exception to her measured approach. But Ofsted chose as its headline some remarks she made on the supposed mismatch between FE vocational provision and job prospects for learners.

Giving students ‘false hope’

Spielman said: “Arts and media do stand out as the area where there is greatest mismatch between the numbers of students taking the courses and their future employment in the industry. There is a point up to which courses that engage learners have value but ultimately there have to be viable prospects at the end.

“Yet even with the poor prospects, course adverts often listed potential jobs in the arts which are, in reality, unlikely to be available to the vast majority of learners but underplay the value of other skills these courses develop.

“These colleges risk giving false hope to students. It raises the question: are they putting the financial imperative of headcount in the classroom ahead of the best interests of the young people taking up their courses. If so, this isn’t acceptable.”

It’s a carefully crafted quote, and a balanced assessment. But when the nuance has drifted away with the passage of time, what will remain is a simple message that Ofsted thinks that colleges are putting on vocational courses that don’t match the local labour market, and that arts and media is the prime offender.

‘Qualification level more important than subject’

I think this message is the wrong one. Five years ago, I would have been on board with this analysis, cast in the shadow of Professor Alison Wolf and her report on vocational education.

But working closely with colleges and principals in my role at the Education and Training Foundation - far more than I ever did as a policy director in DfE - has moved my understanding on in this area. As one senior principal - Ian Pryce of Bedford College Group - put it to me recently, “level trumps subject every time”.

What he meant was, students’ longer job prospects are determined far more by the highest level of qualification they attain, and how well they attain in it, than by what it happens to be in.

‘Take the college course that inspires you’

And as another principal - Brett Freeman of Woking Sixth Form College - told me, the single greatest determiner of whether students achieve well is whether they are interested in, and motivated by, the courses they take.

So the message to students should be: take the course that excites and inspires you, work hard at it and achieve well, and the evidence suggests that you will prosper in the labour market.

I believe it is very important for teachers in arts and media to know that not only does their passion, and that of their students, support their professional identities and their work, the overall evidence does, too.

David Russell is the chief executive of the Education and Training Foundation