Next year’s teacher pay freeze will amount to a fall in real-terms pay for experienced teachers of around 8 per cent compared with 15 years ago, according to new analysis.

The calculation, by highly respected research body the Institute of Fiscal Studies (IFS), shows the drop in real-terms pay for less experienced teachers is also about 4-5 per cent lower than 2007, just before the global financial crisis.

Luke Sibieta, IFS research fellow, said: “It is astounding that teacher pay levels remain so far below what they were before the financial crisis in 2007.

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“The 8 per cent drop in earnings for more experienced teachers has almost certainly contributed to the worsening picture on teacher recruitment and retention.

“The fact that it has taken a global pandemic and economic crisis to ease the pressures on the teacher labour market illustrates the scale of the challenge.”

The announcement of the pay freeze was made by chancellor Rishi Sunak in his Spending Review last November when he said the Covid pandemic had “deepened the disparity” between public and private sector wages and that he could “not justify” an across-the-board public sector pay rise.

This week, a report by the School Teachers’ Review Body (STRB), the independent body which advises the government on teacher pay, confirmed education secretary Gavin Williamson had not been seeking recommendations for pay rises for most teachers for 2021-22.

Heads and teachers’ unions described this as an “absolute insult” after the year schools have been through during the Covid crisis.

Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said: “This report demonstrates what NAHT has been saying for a number of years - experienced teachers and leaders are not being properly rewarded. Their pay has been severely eroded over the past decade, while at the same time they have been asked to take on more and more.

“NAHT’s own survey research has found that nearly half of school leaders are considering leaving the profession sooner than originally planned. 

“If the government is serious about ensuring there are enough great teachers and leaders for every school, they must pay as much attention to retention as to recruitment, and take action to create a truly positive proposition for a long-term career in teaching.”

The IFS analysis, supported by funding from the Nuffield Foundation, shows that, in comparison to teacher pay, average earnings have now recovered to “just above the level seen in 2007”.

And when it comes to pay awards for 2022-23 and beyond, the IFS says the government needs to provide “above-inflation awards” to stop problems of teacher recruitment and retention worsening.

Meanwhile, the STRB says it should be allowed “to fully exercise our role in making recommendations on pay uplifts for all teachers and school leaders for 2022-23”.

The DfE has been contacted for comment.