Last week, we published a major report that revealed the impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on children who started Reception in September 2020, having missed out on early education during the first months of the pandemic.

Specifically, our research - based on more than 3,000 Reception pupils - showed a smaller proportion of children were meeting expectations at the end of the academic year compared with those who attended Reception classes the year before the pandemic. 

Worryingly, the gap between our sample and pre-pandemic pupils was apparent across the three prime early years foundation stage profile (EYFSP) learning areas: communication and language; physical development; and personal, social and emotional development. It was also apparent in the two specific areas of literacy and maths.

The percentage point difference ranged from just over 5 for physical development to around 9 for literacy.

In addition, our results suggest that, in an average-sized classroom, three fewer children reached a good level of development at the end of the year.

Notably, attendance data for a sub-sample of our children showed that during the first lockdown, only 17 per cent of children attended early years settings and, once restrictions were lifted, in excess of 50 per cent of children either did not return or returned for reduced hours.

Reception year is just one (and the last) year covered by the EYFSP. Much of the work towards achieving expected levels on the EYFSP at the end of Reception is carried out before children get to a school setting.

For children entering Reception after the group covered in our study, early education opportunities were disrupted for much longer.

How long will it last?

Therefore, the question is, will we see these concerning trends continue in children who start school in subsequent years?

There are still many unknowns but recent reports suggest that this may be the case, and a look at what is happening in, and to, the early years sector can provide a useful insight.

Unfortunately, the early years sector is facing a highly uncertain future.  

With the sector already struggling, the pandemic only served to exacerbate the challenges faced by early years providers. Prior to the pandemic, attendance rates were high, at above 90 per cent. 

During the first national lockdown, from March to June 2020, settings were open only to children of key workers and vulnerable children - about seven per cent of the usual number. 

Attendance rates have risen slowly since then and, at the beginning of the year, were up to 83 per cent.  However, for many settings, the low attendance rates meant that they did not get the funding they would typically receive.

Given that the early years sector has been significantly underfunded for many years, for many settings, this additional lack of funding has meant they have had to close.

Figures published by Ofsted last year show that more than 2,500 early years settings closed in the five months between December 2020 and May 2021. 

Other settings will have to increase the cost of childcare, meaning that many families will not be able to afford to access these services. 

The lack of staff

More recently we have seen increasing reports about staff shortages.

A report, published in December by the Early Years Alliance, showed that people were leaving the sector and settings were finding it difficult to recruit new staff. Reasons cited included poor pay, job-related stress and feeling undervalued.

For some settings, this has meant reducing opening hours or being unable to take on new children.

For others, the future remains very uncertain. Without adequately trained staff, giving children access to high-quality early years education, which we know is so important developmentally, is under threat. 

The sector is facing significant pressure. While mention of the early years was blatantly absent from the Levelling Up White Paper, the government is about to launch a consultation on changes to childcare ratios for two-year-olds, suggesting that such pressures could be “eased” by reducing staff ratios. 

There are, however, serious problems regarding this move.

Aside from the obvious safety implications, it will increase the workload for staff who are already working at capacity and feel let down by the government. 

More must be done

This is not going to help with the recruitment and retention crisis in the sector. It will also make it incredibly difficult to provide a high-quality learning environment, where staff can spend quality time with the children in their care. 

Our findings show that young children have been negatively impacted by the pandemic. Emerging reports suggest that this trend may be continuing, with concerns expressed about children’s communication and language, physical development and socio-emotional skills. 

The introduction of early years hubs may go some way to supporting existing settings with implementing effective practice and aiding Covid-19 recovery, but they will not address the underlying issues of recruitment, retention and funding. 

We would urge the government to consider additional support for the early years sector so that more high-quality staff are attracted to careers in early education and care, settings can recruit more staff and practitioners can continue to provide the support that young children need.  

Claudine Bowyer-Crane is associate research director, education and skills, at the National Institute of Economic and Social Research; Sara Bonetti is director of early years at the Education Policy Institute; Louise Tracey is a senior research fellow at the University of York