The past year has been one of the most chaotic Westminster has ever seen.

The world of education has not been spared. The Department for Education has had, over the course of 2022, five secretaries of state; four ministers of state for schools; four children’s ministers; and three skills, apprenticeships and higher education ministers.

Poor Baroness Barran, the only minister who has been there all year, must be thoroughly confused.

No time to grow

Unsurprisingly, this has left no opportunity for coherent policy-making on any issue.

Early in the year we had the Schools White Paper and SEND Green Paper, which had their flaws, but at least offered something to build on. But that building has not been able to happen.

The Schools Bill that emerged from the White Paper was rushed and, ultimately, killed by the government. We still await further news on special educational needs and disabilities (SEND).

The one plus point was an unexpected injection of cash at the end of the year to help schools manage the impact of inflation and pay rises.

While it still leaves schools facing tight constraints, it puts them in a much better place than most of the public sector.

Calm before the election storm

Now, though, things are settling down. Rishi Sunak seems likely to be prime minister until the next election, which will probably be in May or October 2024.

The ministerial team is fairly settled, with some experienced old hands returning - particularly schools minister Nick Gibb - and joined by the younger high-flyer Claire Coutinho, who has impressed officials already as minister for children, families and wellbeing.

The new education secretary, Gillian Keegan, has said little so far, but unlike her four predecessors, should get some space to think through the agenda she wants to pursue.

2023, then, will likely be a much calmer year but there’s not much ministers can do with this calm, given that there is no additional money available and probably not another opportunity to pass legislation in this Parliament.

Things will remain much as they are for schools and colleges.

We will hopefully see some further progress on SEND and the MacAlister Review of children’s social care, though it’s unlikely that they’ll be any material impact as a result of either pre-election.

On schools policy, we will hopefully see some additional support around teacher recruitment, which is at crisis levels.

The one new thing to look out for is something on post-16 maths, which Sunak is very keen to make compulsory, despite the teacher shortage.

Given the lack of space for new policy in this Parliament, focus will inevitably shift to the manifestos. The Conservative one will likely focus on their legacy - highlighting improved international league table positions and extra funding in this Parliament.

Labour’s slow and steady approach

Labour is still looking for a way to differentiate itself when it comes to schools policy and shadow education secretary, Bridget Phillipson, has focused almost entirely on early years so far - where there is undoubtedly a strong case for further investment.

Labour leader Keir Starmer’s simplistic comments on curriculum do not inspire much confidence and the one schools policy they do have - taxing private school fees - is a helpful revenue raiser, and political signal, but doesn’t tell us much about what they’ll do with the state system.

I suspect Labour will fill in some of the gaps over the next year without giving too much away. There is little value in talking about structural reform pre-election as it is of no interest to voters (which doesn’t mean it isn’t important).

On issues like curriculum, assessment and accountability, they are caught in something of a bind, as they don’t want to give the government space to attack them for being soft on standards, but also don’t want to offend those in the profession who would like to see more radical change. 

If I were advising them, I’d tell them to do something big on the physical state of the school estate, where the gap between investment needed and what’s available grows ever wider.

If they do win, they will find they have little choice but to spend here as there as too many sites that are simply not safe, so they might as well make a virtue out of it before the election.

So, overall a quieter year in prospect, but the election battle lines and the landscape beyond 2024 should start to become a little clearer.

Sam Freedman is a senior fellow at the Institute for Government and a former senior policy adviser at the Department for Education