The results of the latest and much-anticipated Programme for International Student Assessment (Pisa) study, published yesterday, indicate that students in England have experienced considerable learning loss as a result of the Covid-19 pandemic.
In 2022, average attainment of 15-year-olds in England was around the lowest it has been in maths and reading since 2006, when England first took part in Pisa. That sounds pretty catastrophic on the surface, but, compared with other countries, it looks like outcomes held up relatively well.
In England, the largest fall in attainment has been experienced in maths, with a drop of 12 points on the Pisa scale (or about seven months of learning) between 2018 and 2022.
In reading, the latest Pisa results show a fall of 9 points (or about five months of learning). This is consistent with other evidence that has suggested pandemic-induced learning loss in maths has been more severe and persistent than in reading.
One of the defining elements of Pisa, which is run by the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), is that it allows for comparisons between countries. Across all subjects, England scored substantially above the OECD average in 2022, and experienced similar or smaller falls compared with other OECD countries.
More on Pisa tests 2022:
These favourable international comparisons provide some much-needed context.
While the pandemic has undoubtedly created long-lasting challenges right across our education system, and the work to remedy this is far from complete, England does appear to have fared somewhat better than most other Western countries.
Elsewhere in the UK the story is less positive. Maths attainment in Scotland has continued a long-running downward trend, so much so that scores are now below the OECD average. The results also suggest that learning loss in Wales may have been around double that in England.
Pisa tests 2022: three key insights
Pisa is the leading measure for comparing the educational outcomes of 15-year-olds around the world, but it is far from perfect. There are three interesting twists to the headline findings:
The learning loss implied by Pisa is of a greater magnitude than other evidence would suggest
The National Reference Test (NRT), taken in England by a representative sample of Year 11 students, has previously shown that outcomes in English actually held up despite the disruption caused by the pandemic.
Similarly, EPI’s own analysis indicates that reading outcomes have now recovered to pre-pandemic levels, while losses in maths are around 1.5 months, much less than the seven months implied by Pisa.
The headline falls in maths might be exaggerated because the results for England in 2018 could have been an outlier
If we compare 2022 to 2015, the average maths score in England is only 1 point lower (or around 0.75 months of learning).
The sample of students that sat the Pisa tests were probably not representative of the student population
The OECD has acknowledged that there is likely an upwards bias in the sample for England this time around.
While we don’t know the exact extent to which this has affected results, the OECD suggests that it could be by as much as seven or eight points.
Handle the results with care
Triangulating all of this is difficult, but it is safe to say that we should interpret the Pisa headlines with caution.
Yesterday’s data also shows that the socioeconomic gap (the difference between the top and bottom quarter of pupils by socioeconomic status) widened by 2.2 per cent to 3 per cent in England, having previously been closing before 2018.
The magnitude is slightly less than we found in recent EPI analysis, which estimated that the gap had increased by 3.9 per cent (0.7 months of learning).
But again it illustrates that the impacts of the pandemic were not felt equally, with the most disadvantaged pupils being affected the most.
Longer-term trends
While the disruption caused by the pandemic naturally grabbed the headlines yesterday, it is important to also give some attention to the long-running trends.
While average scores in maths and reading were increasing prior to the pandemic, concerningly, England’s average science scores have been falling at a consistent rate since 2012.
The OECD average has also been falling over this period, but it does potentially indicate a much wider and more longstanding issue with the provision of science, technology, engineering and maths (Stem) education in England.
Wellbeing worries
Pisa also provides some insight into how the wellbeing of pupils in the UK compares with their counterparts internationally. The results reveal another worrying trend.
The reported life satisfaction scores of UK 15-year-olds fell drastically between 2015 and 2022, from an average of 7 to 6.1 (on a 1 to 10 scale), and the UK now has the second lowest average life satisfaction of 15-year-olds across all OECD countries.
Overall, the latest Pisa results suggest England has not fared as badly as some of its international comparators.
However, the results have confirmed that the government still has a lot of work to do. Investment is still needed in education catch-up, particularly for those from disadvantaged backgrounds.
Louis Hodge is associate director for school system and performance at the Education Policy Institute
