This time last year, after two years of grades increasing at GCSE and A level with the use of teacher assessment, the government signalled its intention that we should begin the process of returning to pre-pandemic grade distributions.

This meant that in the August results season of 2022 the proportion of GCSEs that were awarded grade 4 or above came down to 75 per cent from 79 per cent in 2021, and the proportion getting the higher grades (grade 7 and above) fell to 27 per cent, having peaked at 30 per cent in 2021. 

This week Ofqual confirmed that the process would be completed next year, with grades at GCSE and A level returning to the levels seen in 2019.

GCSE and A-level results 2023: a big drop ahead 

Given that the 2022 results fell short of reaching the mid-point between 2019 and 2021, we can expect even larger falls in 2023 than we saw this summer. At GCSE, this means a further drop of another 5 percentage points at both grade 4 and grade 7.

The effect is likely to be even greater in certain subjects, particularly at A level.  

Returning to the 2019 grade distribution seems to be the most pragmatic approach, being fairest across different cohorts. As we have said repeatedly, there was no perfect solution, given the unprecedented circumstances created by the pandemic.

But to those students in the most affected subjects, the promise of a soft landing from the chief regulator may ring just a little hollow.    

In addition to the change in grades, the mitigations put in place last year will now disappear for the most part, with no advance information about exam content or topic optionality.

Will next year’s exams be fair?

The question is, are these changes fair?  

Although the 2023 exams cohort’s course of study for their qualifications may not have been impacted by national closures in the same way as the 2022 cohort’s was, the years leading up to the assessments, which provide the foundation for those courses, were still significantly disrupted.

The effects are also unlikely to have been felt equally. We know from our own research that disadvantaged students and those in the North of the country experienced greater learning loss as a result of the pandemic. And localised disruption was still experienced by many students during the 2021-22 school year.  

On the other hand, we must surely reach a point where it is inappropriate for the examination and grading process to be used to correct for lost learning. If not in 2023, then when? 

But students should not be penalised for the government’s inadequate response to education catch-up and recovery.

Other parts of the system must continue, as they have over the past two years, to recognise the circumstances in which these students have experienced school and taken examinations. 

We would therefore urge sixth forms, colleges, universities and employers to consider this when making admissions and employment decisions using grades. 

Avoiding placing further burdens on schools 

The Department for Education and Ofqual are also consulting on guidance to schools and colleges about gathering assessment evidence to build resilience in the qualifications system and guard against the impact of future disruption.

Those of us who have been critical of the government’s education response to the pandemic, and we are many in number, will welcome anything that protects future students against the mess of 2020 and 2021.

It must, however, be implemented in a way that does not create additional burdens for schools and colleges, nor should it increase staff workload.  

While planning for future crises is, of course, sensible, one hopes that we are not now faced with a fresh ministerial team at DfE who would much rather believe that the effects of Covid-19 pandemic are over and that we can now all move on.

This month’s key stage 2 statistics suggest that the pandemic has wiped out a decade’s (slow) progress in narrowing the disadvantage gap in primary schools. This month we can expect statistics from the DfE on what has happened to the gap at GCSE. Progress in closing that gap had stalled even before the pandemic.  

Making the qualifications system more resilient is important in the long term. But the government must not lose sight of the persisting impacts of the pandemic on current students.

It must therefore support schools to continue their recovery efforts, including targeting greater resources at disadvantaged and vulnerable students who were amongst the most affected by the pandemic. 

Jon Andrews is head of analysis and director of school system and performance at think tank the Education Policy Institute