It was by no means plain sailing, but the past decade saw notable gains for disadvantaged pupils’ educational achievement.
Between 2011 and 2019, the attainment gap between disadvantaged pupils and their classmates narrowed in both primary and secondary schools. This progress was testament to the enormous efforts of teachers and school leaders across England, as well as policies such as the pupil premium, which provided funding and focus.
But 2020 has brought with it new and significant challenges for continuing that progress.
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Today the Education Endowment Foundation is publishing our analysis of the implications of Covid-19 closures for the attainment gap. We are projecting that the attainment gap will widen significantly, likely reversing the past decade’s progress.
Coronavirus: The impact on disadvantaged pupils
Our analysis - based on a systematic search of literature on school closures - suggests that the gap at the end of primary school could widen by between 11 per cent and 75 per cent between March and September.
This analysis, of course, comes with caveats.
School closures due to coronavirus are different in many ways from closures over the summer - the focus of almost all of the highest quality studies that our research looks at. Some of these differences might lead us to be more optimistic about the impact of closures this year; for example, because of the considerable efforts to support home learning undertaken by schools and parents.
The true cost of missed learning
However, other differences might imply that our projections are conservative, particularly when we focus on the gap. Surveys of teachers and parents by the Sutton Trust and the Institute for Fiscal Studies have highlighted that those from poorer backgrounds appear to be missing out most. Disadvantaged pupils are less likely to have good online access, they spend less time on home learning, and they are less likely to have sufficient resources at home or parents who can assist them in their school work.
Taken together, the prior literature on school closures and the growing evidence about the experience of socially disadvantaged families during lockdown conveys a clear message: for the attainment gap, the 2020s could not have got off to a worse start.
But there is another - positive - caveat to insert. Whatever the impact that school closures have had on widening the attainment gap, and whatever the adversity experienced by each child, what matters now is how we respond.
To have a chance of succeeding, our reaction must be collaborative, intelligent and sustained.
1. Collaborative
The responsibility for Covid catch-up cannot fall on teachers and school leaders alone. We must respond as a system and a society, using every available resource.
Today, alongside our gap projections, the EEF is launching a programme of online tuition pilots, developed in partnership with three other charities: Impetus, Nesta and the Sutton Trust.
Extensive evidence from the EEF Toolkit suggests that tuition is a particularly promising catch-up strategy and the pilots aim to identify whether - when guided by teachers - tutors can help disadvantaged children to learn at home.
The initiative will support some 1,600 pupils over the coming weeks, focused, in particular, on children who will not return to school until the autumn.
2. Intelligent
One acute risk relates to the educational impact of pupil absence once schools reopen for more children. School closures so far have almost certainly widened the gap. But there is a danger that the situation will get much worse if children from disadvantaged families return to school more slowly than their peers, which the Institute for Fiscal Studies has indicated is likely and as has happened in some other European countries that have already reopened schools.
This is not an argument for reopening schools more quickly but an argument for reopening in a way that means as many families as possible send their children back. The most damaging scenario would be one in which support for remote learning is removed, with some children still at home.
3. Sustained
Compensating for the negative impact of school closures on the gap will require a sustained response. Calls for immediate action, from summer schools to extended hours in the autumn term, are clearly well-motivated, and some of these strategies may help. But it is highly unlikely that a single approach will be enough.
Coronavirus will have affected every family and school in different ways, and the strains of lockdown will have created new barriers to learning for both teachers and children. This reinforces the need to act with intelligence and in partnership, drawing on all of our system’s strengths.
In time, it might be possible to identify positive consequences of the coronavirus crisis for schools. The extraordinary ways in which teachers have supported children and families at home have been deeply impressive. Our research could hardly show the importance of schools more clearly.
But for now, it is unhelpful to downplay the challenge that we face. The educational impact of school closures is likely to be severe. What matters most now is that we are confident, concerted and evidence-driven in our approach to helping every pupil bounce back.
Professor Becky Francis is CEO of the Education Endowment Foundation
