Every year, there’s at least two education speeches that everyone thinks matter, but don’t. And every three years, there’s one that not many people pay attention to, but really matters.

The two speeches that everyone thinks matter are the party conference speech by the education secretary, and the chancellor’s Budget speech. I’m always asked if I think there’ll be a big announcement “at conference”. But what edu-watchers tend to fail to remember is that the conference speeches are for the party audience, not the sector. They’re heavy on political rhetoric, and very light on policy.

Similarly, Budget speeches almost always flatter to deceive. With some exceptions, major announcements on spending trajectories and public service reform don’t get made at Budget time. The audience for this speech is also those who don’t follow politics obsessively. And whilst this speech can be absolutely critical in setting overall political direction for a government, the risk of getting it wrong is far greater than the benefit of getting it right, and, as such, most chancellors tend to play it fairly safe on the public spending side, with new giveaways more in the “gimmick” column.

Exhibit A: earlier this week. Not just the infamous “little extras” but a tiny £10 million pilot on varying Stem teacher pay in the North East, a tweak to apprenticeship levy distribution rules, and £1.7 million for Holocaust education. All worthy in their own terms, but hardly things to really move the dial.

How much cash will education get?

The speech that really does matter is also given by the chancellor, however. And this is the speech that every three years announces the publication of the Spending Review (SR), and what is known as the “envelope” for public spending for all departments over the next few financial years - also known as “how much cash education will get”. The SR, in contrast to the Budget and certainly party conference speeches, occupies a huge amount of departmental attention for the year or so before it is concluded. And rightly so. Budgets can tweak around the edges. But the type of long-run, significant policies in education that really change things all need the kind of multi-year funding commitments behind them that only a Spending Review can give.

So perhaps the most important education announcement in the Budget was a confirmation that the overall funding envelope for the next SR period (which will be announced next spring, and take effect from April 2020) would be an annual 1.2 per cent real-terms increase in public spending.

Education, as you may have spotted, has a had a tough time of it since 2010 (though, unpopular as this is to say, considerably better than many other public services). The Institute for Fiscal Studies assessment is that schools’ spending has fallen by 8 per cent in real terms per capita (in purchasing terms per pupil) between 2010 and 2018. Sixth-form and FE spending has fallen by much more than this. So 1.2 per cent annual real-terms growth from Sep 2020 looks like a real step change.

But a bit more digging reveals that we’re not quite in for happy days yet. The Budget document is explicit: “Aggregate day to day spending outside the NHS will rise in line with inflation over this period.” In other words, yes the spending taps will be partly turned on. But the biggest, er, gush by far will go to pay for the NHS 70th birthday present of £20 billion.

And there’s more. Across the rest of Whitehall, it’s pretty likely that defence will get more than the average rise, given the cost pressures they are facing, the deteriorating international situation, and internal Tory politics. The Department for International Development will, too (though it’s a pretty small budget). Other areas including housing, social care, prisons and local government also have pretty strong claims on additional funds, given that they’ve all had between 25 per cent and 40 per cent cuts since 2010, far outstripping those of schools. So the Department for Educaiton as a whole may well get less than the average in order to pay for those other departments.

And then consider the cutting of the pie within the department. The Augar review is almost certainly going to result in a reduction to headline university tuition fees, which will probably have to be made up via greater direct government funding. And surely - surely - it’s untenable for FE and post-16 funding to continue to bear the lion’s share of education spending pressures for the next few years. Early years could take a bit of a haircut but is essentially demand-led; if there’s more small people that need childcare, the bill rises. Which leaves schools - as the biggest bit of spending within the department - suddenly looking a bit vulnerable.

Austerity may be coming to an end, according to thechancellor. But if you’re a school leader, don’t go ordering any bunting quite yet.

Jonathan Simons is former government adviser