Having had some time to get past the elation of Ofsted’s headline judgements being retired, those who run schools and trusts would be forgiven if those feelings of jubilant fervour have given way to foreboding.

As unfit for purpose as Ofsted has been for some time - judging by widespread feeling in the system - it was at least a known entity.

Heads became very good at presenting the best version of their school on demand and very accurate at knowing the likely outcome. They knew how to read a given framework and fall into line (or make it look like that was the case). They understood and could predict the rhythms and waves of inspection.

Ofsted changes for 2025

It is perfectly acceptable to say the system was fatally flawed, but also to admit to some comfort in the familiarity the system offered. Just as it is now acceptable to welcome change but have trepidation about what that may bring.

Let’s be clear: the timeline for change is ludicrously short. We are expecting a ground-up renovation of the inspection system to be researched, formulated, consulted upon and piloted across just three academic terms.

On top of that, Ofsted and the Department for Education need to - in that time - persuade the unions and the sector that this is a fair system, that it will work, that inspectors can implement it with confidence and consistency, and that its ability to make a difference on an aspect like inclusion is genuine.

Report cards and inspection

Talking to leading figures in the system, there is little confidence of this all being possible. Those who have delivered projects at scale just see too many snags, hurdles and political scraps getting in the way of maintaining the pace needed to meet that September 2025 deadline. And so they expect postponement or compromise.

One experienced system leader suggests that the compromise will already be baked into the plans in a form of a more gradual, flexible rollout to the new system than many will expect. However, a policy expert believes that would be politically difficult for Labour and thus we may end up with the new system, however unready or untested it is by that point.

Curriculum review

What complicates matters further is that Labour has set the plate of Ofsted change spinning at the same time as so many other plates - and all are interconnected.

A few examples?

The curriculum and assessment review recommendations and how far they will form government direction should have a direct impact on how schools are judged in an inspection, both on what they teach and how outcomes across different areas are weighted. But by the spring term, it will only be ready to report interim findings - once Ofsted’s consultation on report cards has already started.

On the special educational needs and disabilities (SEND) system, Bridget Phillipson told me that the sector is going to have to be patient for change, yet we are expecting an inclusion criterion to kick in just 12 months from now.

As leaders pointed out in this excellent piece by Tes’ John Roberts, this risks schools carrying the can for the entire SEND system being “lose, lose, lose”. And, as trust leader Jonny Uttley told Tes Magazine, it also risks Ofsted defining inclusion rather than the DfE and the sector doing so.

School improvement

On triggers for intervention, we do not yet know how regional improvement teams (RITs) will operate, particularly how the accountability of that school improvement effort will work: in the “old” system two RI judgements were the marker that something needed to drastically change, and this often happened after several attempts at school improvement had been made.

Is Ofsted going to be the arbiter of the success of the new RITs and, if so, on what basis and by what measures?

It seems not just difficult, but nonsensical, for these and other just-as-critical parts of the system to be moving in unison - but even more so that it is all on such a tight timescale.

Schools and inspection

So, as a leader of a school or trust right now, how might you approach all of this so it feels slightly less chaotic?

In the interim 12 months, it would be assumed most of those with existing judgements will likely begin to refer to themselves by their sub-judgements, not their overall judgements - to be in line with those undergoing “new” inspections and in the spirit of the shift away from those overall judgments.

However, it’s likely those with an “outstanding” judgment will choose not to do so: those banners won’t be disappearing just yet. You will need to make a call on that as a school or trust and communicate that decision carefully.

Report card consultation

It would be wise in this period to familiarise yourselves with the ideas swirling about what a report card might look like and think about how that might look for your school: Ellen-Peirson Hagger has this excellent piece on that very subject.

And engaging with consultations and using the power of your voice will be essential: this is a generational shift in school inspection and it needs to be right. Passivity will likely mean a poorly thought-through and implemented approach. The sector will need to be bullish and uncompromising to ensure this solution is the right one.

One final note: it’s important Ofsted and the DfE do their part here, too. Excited as they may be at being the ones to steer a reset of the inspection system, they need to understand that for heads and their teams, that excitement might be overwhelmed by anxiety.

And importantly, given all outlined above, they need to recognise and understand that this anxiety is entirely understandable and justified.