Falling pupil rolls should not be used as an opportunity to cut the total schools’ budget, researchers have said.

Primary schools in England struggling with falling pupil numbers could be forced to run mixed-age classes to cope financially, according to a report published today by the National Foundation for Educational Research (NFER).

In extreme cases, some schools with many unfilled places could be forced to close because of budgetary pressures, according to the analysis of the impact of falling pupil rolls.

The NFER suggests that one possible solution for managing the problem of falling rolls would be for the government to increase per-pupil funding faster than inflation.

The report says: “Falling pupil numbers should not be used as an opportunity to cut the total school budget. Instead, increasing per-pupil funding rates whilst numbers fall would give schools the means to improve their provision, including by cutting class sizes.

“Beyond funding, it is likely that a mixture of different options will be needed [to address falling pupil rolls], particularly given that the challenge will look very different in different areas. As such, consideration should be given to all the available levers so that schools can plan ahead to ensure continuity for the children they teach.”

Falling pupil rolls in primary schools

The percentage of primary school places that are unfilled is projected to rise from 12 per cent to 16 per cent over the next five years because of a drop in the birth rate.

In inner London the problem is likely to be more acute, with unfilled places projected to rise from 20 per cent to 30 per cent over the same period.

The NFER report says: “The combined picture suggests that continuing falling pupil numbers will cause more primary schools to face significant financial strife in future unless they find ways to cut costs substantially or funding is significantly increased.”

It adds: “One possibility is that schools may look to create mixed-age classes in an effort to save the cost of teachers and teaching assistants.”

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The government could also offer “parachute payments” to give schools some “breathing room” while pupil numbers are falling quickly, the NFER suggests

A bulge in the population in England has been moving from primary schools into secondary schools.

London councils warned last year that schools could be forced to merge or close as a result of falling pupil numbers and funding pressures.

The number of applications for places at primary schools in the capital fell last year due to the drop in the birth rate, as well as families leaving the city after the pandemic and Brexit, councils said.

The latest NFER report highlights a number of new government policies that may help to alleviate some pressures.

For example, it says the plan to levy VAT on private school fees could lead to a “small increase” in the number of pupils joining state schools.

But the analysis concludes that “it is not anticipated this will affect the overall, national trend of falling numbers” in state primary schools.

Using spare space for nurseries

The government also recently announced funding for 300 schools to convert unused space into new nurseries - the first tranche of funding for a planned wider scheme. This could help schools to maintain their income levels, the NFER says.

But the report warns that not all unused space in primary schools is suitable for nursery-age children, and “conversions will incur new costs, too”.

“As such, offering nursery classes is only likely to help schools struggling with falling numbers of primary children if the net effect on school finances is positive,” it says.

“Given that half of all pre-school childcare providers reported that their current income did not fully cover their costs in 2023, it is doubtful many schools will achieve this.”

Tiffnie Harris, primary specialist at the Association of School and College Leaders (ASCL), said: “Schools have a limited ability to reduce costs, as many of these are fixed and they still must have the staff necessary to keep the school running.

“Primary schools are already introducing mixed-age classes in response to falling rolls, and it is inevitable that some smaller schools will be forced to close if they are not given any form of financial support.”