End-of-year maths scores can be a better predictor of English performance than English scores, research has suggested.
This finding means schools may get better grade predictions if they do not limit their data to a specific subject alone, according to the research by University College London education professor John Jerrim for FFT Education Datalab.
Professor Jerrim used data from one large multi-academy trust to look at how well Year 8 pupils’ end-of-year English test scores could be predicted from their performance at the end of Year 7.
He looked at end of Year 7 English and maths test scores, as well as key stage 2 Sats reading and maths scores.
Professor Jerrim found that pupils’ performance in maths at the end of Year 7 had the strongest correlation with Year 8 English scores.
‘Useful in predicting future outcomes’
Even maths scores taken from KS2 Sats in Year 6 were more strongly associated with Year 8 English test scores than English tests taken at the end of Year 7.
A potential explanation for this, Professor Jerrim says, is that maths test scores “typically contain less measurement error than English tests”, as they are “less susceptible to random error arising from the judgement of the marker”.
“This then makes them particularly useful in predicting future outcomes, leading to this somewhat counterintuitive finding,” he adds.
Professor Jerrim suggests that schools may reflect on whether they are using the data they hold to predict and monitor pupil progress “in the optimum way”.
“Such predictions are likely to be better when they do not draw only upon the most recent data point in a specific subject alone,” he said.
Although testing has “learning benefits” and may help identify learning gaps, it is likely that a twice-yearly or even a single annual assessment will suffice, Professor Jerrim continued.
His work is part of a Nuffield Foundation-funded project using data from the National Institute of Teaching’s teacher-education dataset.
The project aims to develop a better understanding of the impact that teachers have on their pupils’ outcomes.
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