Around two-thirds of schools received inspection grades that aligned with their headline performance data in 2022-23, according to an Ofsted report published today.
The findings come after incoming chief inspector Sir Martyn Oliver was pressed by the Commons Education Select Committee on why some schools receive good inspection outcomes despite poor exam results.
High-profile figures, including former chief inspector Sir Michael Wilshaw, have previously raised concern that the link between Ofsted grades and school performance is too weak under the current inspection framework.
But today’s report concludes that “in most cases…there is clear alignment with published data outcomes”.
‘The link has not changed’
Inspection grades last year were in line with test or exam results for 68 per cent of primaries and 64 per cent of secondary schools, the watchdog found.
And this is similar to before the 2019 education inspection framework (EIF) was introduced, the report continues.
In 2018-19, which was the last time a full year of inspections took place using up-to-date data, 65 per cent of primary schools and 67 per cent of secondary schools received inspection grades that aligned with outcomes, the analysis states.
The report said this “suggests that while the EIF puts less weight on the data itself on inspection, the link between the performance data outcomes and inspection grades has not changed”.
Ofsted’s analysis compares actual inspection grades with the grades that would have been hypothesised from data alone at the end of 2021-22 academic year.
For primary schools, researchers looked at the proportion of pupils reaching the expected standard in key stage 2 reading, writing and maths. For secondary schools, they compared grades against Progress 8 scores.
Concerns over the curriculum focus of EIF
Ofsted’s new inspection framework, which was introduced in September 2019, gives more weight to the school curriculum when assessing a school’s quality of education.
When the framework was being introduced, Sir Martyn, chief executive of Outwood Grange Academies Trust, called it out for being “a middle-class framework for middle-class kids”.
Sir Martyn’s concerns were voiced alongside his fellow MAT leader Sir Dan Moynihan, chief executive of the Harris Federation.
During his pre-appointment hearing for the chief inspector role in September, Sir Martyn said: “The substance of education is important but outcomes are.”
He added: “I find it is difficult to explain how you get [schools with] some of the worst outcomes in the country getting a good inspection.”
He also told MPs that in the post-Covid era it would be hard to be in a position where “outcomes equals an Ofsted grade” and that “this wouldn’t do anyone any favours”.
Lack of alignment for ‘good reasons’
Research by FFT Education Datalab has previously suggested there is still a link between progress scores and Ofsted ratings, but that there are still outliers.
Today’s report also finds that the grades of some schools are not what would be expected by their performance data.
However, for more than 90 per cent of these schools, this amounts to a difference of “only” one inspection grade, according to Ofsted.
And there were “good reasons” for judging schools differently from what their performance data suggests, the report states.
This may include the “validity of the performance data in determining the current quality of education in a school”, “the context that the school is operating in” and the “wider sub-judgements that cover more than the quality of education”.
Ofsted said: “Our inspections are designed to get ‘under the bonnet’ of a school; to really understand what it is like to be a pupil there. Test and exam results are a vital part of that picture, but we look at so much more than just these outcomes.
“This is why we have judgements not just for quality of education but also for personal development, behaviour and leadership.”
If inspection grades always or nearly always aligned with test and exam results, “that might suggest that we do not look deeply enough at all the other things that parents care about”, it said.
On the other hand, it added, “too little alignment would raise questions about the inspection model”.
‘Low alignment’ more likely in small schools
Ofsted’s data also showed that smaller schools’ results are a less reliable indicator of underlying quality, and are less likely to be aligned with inspection judgements as a result.
This “volatility” in alignment is also noted in a small number of secondary schools, the report found.
Ofsted has said that it will “continue to analyse the relationship between inspection grades and headline data measures”.
The watchdog intended “to repeat this analysis again to ensure that we continue to have a good understanding of the various factors that contribute to a school’s inspection grade”, it said.
