Just over half of teacher estimates for national qualifications last year matched the final grade awarded to students following their exams, a new analysis finds.
However, the Scottish Qualifications Authority (SQA) research - which is published today - says “there is better alignment between results and estimates in 2022 than in the years preceding the pandemic”.
The analysis also reveals that had teacher estimates replaced exams again this year the A to C pass rate at Higher and National 5 would have been lower - by 4 percentage points at National 5 and by approximately 2 percentage points at Higher.
At National 5, the figures show the pass rate based on teacher estimates in 2022 was 76.7 per cent, compared with the actual pass rate following the exams of 80.8 per cent.
At Higher, the pass rate based on teacher estimates in 2022 was 77.5 per cent, compared with the actual A to C pass rate of 79.1 per cent
Advanced Higher bucked the trend. The A to C pass rate at Advanced Higher in 2022 would have been 2 percentage points higher if teacher estimates had determined grades. Based on teacher estimates the pass rate was 83.7 per cent, but following the exams, it was 81.5 per cent.
The research says overall when National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses were combined attainment rates in 2022 “were higher than estimated”.
It adds that “grade A to C attainment was 3 percentage points higher than estimated, and grade A attainment was 5 percentage points higher than estimated”.
At National 5, the grade A attainment rate in 2022 was 7 percentage points above estimates; at Higher, the grade A attainment rate was 3 percentage points above estimates. But again the relationship between results and estimates was different at Advanced Higher, with the grade A attainment rate 1 percentage point lower than estimated.
However, Scotland’s biggest teaching union, the EIS, is warning against “drawing conclusions about the reliability or otherwise of teacher judgements” based on the 2022 assessment data.
Andrea Bradley, EIS general secretary, told Tes Scotland: “Last year was another exceptional year. The pandemic was still underway and we had unprecedented levels of pupil and staff absence in February and March 2022 that would have hampered teachers’ ability to gather assessment evidence.
“Teacher estimates are not predictions. They have to be based on demonstrated attainment and are not intended to be forecasting what young people will get in the exam.”
This year, students completed the first national exams diet after two years of cancellations owing to Covid-related disruption.
In 2020 and 2021, when teachers were responsible for grading pupils, the pass rate was higher than in the years that preceded Covid when exams had taken place.
Therefore it might seem logical to assume that teacher estimates in 2021-22 - when the exams were able to go ahead - would be more generous than final grades.
However, the research says: “Before the pandemic, the trend was for estimates to be higher than results by around 1 percentage point (one in 100 fewer entries were awarded grades A to C than estimated). However, in 2022, estimated attainment at grades A to C was lower than seen in the three years preceding the pandemic and almost three in 100 more entries were awarded a grade of A to C than estimated.”
The analysis also reveals that in 2022, 51 per cent of teacher estimates at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher were the same as the final grade, while 30 per cent of entries were awarded a higher grade than the teacher estimate, and 19 per cent were awarded a lower grade.
For comparison, in 2019, 47 per cent of entries at National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher were awarded the same grade as the teacher estimate, while 31 per cent were awarded a higher grade and 23 per cent were awarded a lower grade.
The research says: “When estimated grades did not match awarded grades, they most commonly differed by one grade and the awarded grade was more often higher (than estimated) than lower.”
Overall, the SQA says that “there is better alignment between results and estimates in 2022 than in the years preceding the pandemic”. And the body credits teachers’ experience moderating and assessing pupils during the pandemic for the change.
An SQA spokesperson said: “The approach to awarding, significant effort exerted by teachers and lecturers in the estimates process since the cancellation of exams, as well as their engagement with SQA’s Understanding Standards materials, are all likely to be factors in explaining this pattern.”
The report says: “The analysis shows that future support provided to centres could usefully focus on intermediate and lower grades, since these are less easy to estimate.”
In 2022, almost four in five entries (79 per cent) estimated an A grade were awarded an A.
However, the analysis says ”correspondence between estimates and results is substantially lower for the other estimated grades”.
It continues: “At grades B, C and D, results can be higher or lower than estimated. Approximately four out of 10 (39 per cent) entries estimated a grade B were awarded a B, 34 per cent of estimated C grades were awarded Cs, 32 per cent of estimated D grades were awarded Ds, and 45 per cent of estimated no awards resulted in no awards. This suggests that estimating attainment is easier at grade A.”
In 2022, the exams went ahead. However, the SQA promised a more generous approach to grading and streamlined courses - often removing the coursework element - in order to allow more time for teaching and learning. Then in February, the body confirmed students would receive more support.
However, the study guides produced as part of the additional support package received a scathing response from teachers and pupils.
SQA guidance on estimates last year said: “An estimate is a judgement of a final grade and band for a graded National Course across all assessment components. It is based on a holistic review of a learner’s performance as indicated by assessment evidence that is generated at the centre. It is important that each estimate is a realistic, evidence-based prediction of a learner’s final attainment in the course assessment.”
