There is “sound evidence of unwarranted grade inflation” with the older-style level 3 BTEC qualifications, according to research by Ofqual.

The qualifications regulator is now calling on awarding organisations to take action.

According to the new research, which analyses the profile, outcomes and subsequent performance of four cohorts of students between 2005-06 and 2015-16 on the old level 3 BTECs, grade distributions for A levels remained stable over time. Meanwhile, grade distributions for these qualifications have become “progressively more skewed over time, towards the upper end of the grade range”.

It adds: “In particular, the proportion of students achieving ‘top grades’ (distinction or distinction star) has increased substantially over time” - from 21 per cent in 2005-06 to 61 per cent in 2015-16. Similar patterns were found for other types of ‘older style’ L3 BTECs.”

While a number of awarding organisations provide applied general qualifications and level 3 Tech Levels qualifications, the majority of certifications are in Pearson’s level 3 BTECs.

Stable prior attainment

Ofqual said that the increases occurred under the context of stable prior attainment, “suggesting no particular change in the overall ability of the cohort”.

It added: “Further analyses showed that after controlling for differences in various characteristics of ‘older style’ L3 BTEC and A-level students, ‘older style’ L3 BTEC students were still significantly more likely to achieve top grades than A-level students, with this gap increasing over time. Students taking a mixture of ‘older style’ L3 BTEC and A-level courses were also much more likely to achieve top grades in their BTEC qualifications, compared to their A-level qualifications.”

According to the report, the findings suggest “the existence of unwarranted grade inflation, as no factors could be identified to support the legitimacy of these large increases in attainment”. It adds that this analysis in itself provides “sound evidence of unwarranted grade inflation”, but when considering subsequent degree outcomes of these students, successive cohorts of older-style L3 BTEC students with the same outcomes were “increasingly less likely to achieve an upper 2nd or 1st class degree than A-level students with equivalent level 3 outcomes”.

“Again, these findings seem consistent with the existence of grade inflation, as they suggest that ‘older style’ L3 BTEC outcomes have offered progressively lower levels of preparation for university over time, compared to equivalent A-level outcomes. In other words, this indicates that ‘older style’ L3 BTEC outcomes have become devalued over time.”

‘Careful consideration’

Ofqual says “careful consideration is needed moving forward as to how such issues might be mitigated in the future, including for these ‘older style’ L3 BTECs still available to students and the newer suite of BTECs recently introduced”.

“Indeed, while this research has focused upon ‘older style’ L3 BTECs, it is possible that these findings may generalise to other similar qualifications showing grading increases (ie, those operating similar models of standards maintenance in similar contexts).”

The regulator is calling on awarding organisations to act on the findings of today’s report to address the risk of grade inflation in these legacy qualifications, and to consider how best to strengthen their controls of internal assessment across a wide range of technical and vocational qualifications.

Phil Beach, executive director for vocational and technical qualifications at Ofqual, said: “As the regulator, our primary role is to maintain the integrity of standards in qualifications, and wherever we find evidence that this may be threatened, it’s important that we step in. This research shows that there are unwarranted increases in results in some of the ‘older style’ applied general qualifications, and this has the potential to undermine public confidence and devalue the achievements of students.”

‘Appropriate steps’

He added that although the Department for Education had indicated its intention to review these qualifications, Ofqual had to take appropriate steps to manage the potential for grade inflation while they remained in use.

“We are therefore calling on awarding organisations to strengthen their controls on internal assessment in any qualification where there are potential risks to standards. We will also be considering whether additional bespoke guidance or additional regulatory requirements are required to ensure qualification standards are maintained.”

Bill Watkin, chief executive of the Sixth Form Colleges Association, said the report made clear that there are “great differences between the old and new versions of the applied general qualifications”.

“The new version is more rigorous and demanding, and, like A level, it has an examination component. It is considerably harder for students to get the top grades in them, but it is quite right that more and more sixth forms - in schools and colleges - are choosing them.”

‘Tighter rules’

A spokeswoman for Pearson said the awarding organisation welcomed Ofqual’s report and its intent to strengthen qualifications: “In recent years, we have worked closely with employers and universities to strengthen the content of the BTEC National, ensuring that it is mapped closely to the skills required for given career paths. In addition, the qualification has been strengthened through a series of other improvements including the introduction of external assessments, tighter rules around work re-submission, and greater pastoral support.”

She added the result had been a “flattening out [of] grade inflation over the last two years, as is evidenced by the recently published 2018 results where we’ve seen fewer students attaining the top grade”.

“We are committed to providing learners with the skills required to drive forward future growth for the UK economy and develop successful careers,” she said.

“We saw a similar pattern of grade-inflation reduction in GCSE and A level following measures that were collaboratively taken by awarding organisations, the DfE and Ofqual a few years ago. We have a clear plan for how to continue to strengthen these vital vocational qualifications, which we have previously shared with Ofqual. We respect that their approach is to make systemic improvements rather than have awarding organisations acting in isolation. We are ready to act and now await guidance from Ofqual and the DfE.“