A 3.5 per cent pay rise for teachers recommended by the Department for Education will be “unsustainable” and could lead to staff cuts without extra funds, school leaders have warned.
The warning comes after the DfE said a 3 per cent rise for experienced teachers, coupled with increasing teacher starting salaries from £28,000 to £30,000, would be “manageable” within schools’ budgets next year, following the additional funding provided in the Autumn Statement.
The claim, made in a written submission to the School Teachers’ Review Body, indicates there will be no further funding for the core schools budget in reserve, including for teacher pay, and that it is for headteachers “to carefully plan their budgets to manage the 2023 teacher pay award within core funding”.
But multi-academy trust CEOs and school leaders have told Tes that finding the money to meet the cost of the rises will be “simply impossible” and that they will have to look at delaying recruitment, not replacing departing staff and, in some cases, restructuring staff teams to cut costs.
The comments come after similar warnings last summer that pay rises for 2022-23 were not affordable, and that it was “fantasy economics” for the government to suggest schools and trusts could use reserves where necessary to meet cost “challenges”.
But now, leaders have warned that the extra funding announced by the chancellor in last year’s Autumn Statement will not help them to meet increased pay bills because they have used up any reserves. They also face rising energy costs after the government said it would reduce its support scheme to cover these costs from April.
The DfE set out a technical note on school costs alongside its submission to the STRB, estimating what mainstream schools could afford, but leaders have stressed that - as the note concedes - these are figures based on a national average. This means they may not be reflective of the situation in some schools, such as those that have significantly higher energy bills or smaller rural schools that are below capacity.
Robin Bevan, headteacher at Southend High School for Boys in Essex, warned that “mature analysis” would include looking at “prototypical institutions and ‘case study’ outliers, such as small schools, 11-18 schools with large post-16 provision, and those with unusually high staff retention rates”.
He added that there was “no way” his school could afford to pay the suggested new elevated rates without “a devastating impact on existing provision”.
A ‘significant challenge’ for school leaders
Andrew Moorhouse, chief executive of The Primary First Trust - a group of 10 academies - said that while he absolutely supported pay rises for teachers, unfunded rises were always a “significant challenge”.
“In practice, this may unfortunately mean not being able to replace departing staff where at all possible, delaying recruitment and, if necessary, having to look at restructures where feasible.
“All are a long way from ideal, but we will do what we can to ensure our pupils’ education is protected and our staff are supported,” he added.
And Nick Osborne, chief executive of the Maritime Academy Trust of 13 schools, said it was “not feasible” to balance budgets in the current climate without making “very difficult choices”.
“Our teachers deserve pay rises for the incredibly important work they do - it just needs the funding to back it up, otherwise there is no headroom, only funding gaps.”
Warren Carratt, chief executive of the Nexus multi-academy trust of special schools, warned that his board would be back in the position of having to “rationalise expenditure”, and workforce costs would need to be “looked at hardest” as it makes up the highest proportion of school budgets.
Meanwhile, “another unfunded rise is just beyond any consideration” and “simply impossible”, warned Vic Goddard, co-principal at Passmores Academy.
“We’ve used up all our reserves this year so no increase in any costs is affordable and our fixed rate for one of the utilities is up next year already.”
Schools facing a ‘large squeeze’ on resources
A major report published earlier this month showed that academy trusts managed to make “significant surpluses” overall in 2021-22, but that 88 per cent of trusts “are expecting future reductions in total income”.
And a report last year warned that schools faced a “large squeeze” on their resources despite the uplift in government funding announced last autumn.
In addition to finding cash for teacher pay rises, schools are also potentially facing having to find the money for support staff pay rises later this year, with unions demanding a 12.7 per cent pay rise for their members.
Experienced teachers were awarded a 5 per cent pay rise this year, but the NEU teaching union is currently in a pay dispute with the government over this figure, with a first day of strikes having taken place earlier this month, and further action set to take place next week.
The proposed rise for next year is being considered by the STRB ahead of its pay recommendation, which it is set to publish by the end of the current academic year.
The Department for Education has been approached for comment.
