With the latest figures showing that more than one in 20 pupils nationally were off school last week because of contact with Covid cases, there is a broad consensus that the situation simply cannot carry on as it is.

The worsening attendance figures and the widespread reports of bubble, year group and school closures owing to the spread of the virus have created mounting pressure for the government to take action to reduce the constant disruption being caused to pupils’ education.

At the same time, the latest Public Health England data has shown an increasing number of Covid outbreaks in schools.

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There is a growing sense that, as the country moves towards vaccinating its adult population, it needs to look again at how the virus is managed in schools.

But what can actually be done to protect schools from more disruption? And what is September likely to look like for teachers and school staff?

An end to isolation?

An obvious way to reduce the number of pupils being sent home following potential Covid contact is to change the rules on the need to self-isolate.

And education secretary Gavin Williamson has already indicated that this is what the government plans to do.

He said: “I am working with the health secretary, alongside scientists and public health experts, to relax Covid measures in schools in line with wider work to remove restrictions across society.

“I’ll be looking closely at the issues around the need for ongoing isolation of bubbles and the outcomes of the daily contact testing trial, as we consider a new model for keeping children in education.”

The latest figures for last week show that there were 336,000 pupils isolating because of a contact with a Covid case, with 279,000 of these contacts happening inside school.

This compares with 15,000 pupils who were off with a confirmed case of Covid and 24,000 pupils off with a suspected case of the virus.

An end to bubbles next month?

The other major change linked to this is the government’s plan to bring an end to schools operating in bubbles.

Mr Williamson told MPs yesterday that he wanted to lift the restriction of bubbles as part of the government’s plans to move the country out of Covid restrictions next month - although it was unclear at the time of writing whether this would mean bubbles could be scrapped in July or at some later point in the summer.

An early decision, well ahead of September, will be welcomed by headteachers. Geoff Barton, general secretary of the Association of School and College Leaders, has been calling on the government to provide clarity over whether schools will still be expected to operate bubbles in September.

There is also support for a policy change on bubbles from parts of the scientific community. Earlier this week, Professor Russell Viner, a member of the government’s Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (Sage) stopped short of calling for bubbles to be scrapped, but said that the current rules risk creating a situation where vaccinated adults can enjoy freedoms “while restrictions are put on one part of society - our children - who won’t be vaccinated”.

What about the risk of Covid spreading?

Removing the need to self-isolate could quickly reduce the amount of disruption each Covid case can cause.

And removing bubbles may help schools to move back towards an operational normality that has been absent for more than a year since the onset of the coronavirus crisis.

But the concern is that if these controls are removed, the highly transmissable Delta variant of the virus will spread even more quickly in schools.

This has been raised by the NAHT school leaders’ union following Mr Williamson’s comments on seeking to remove bubbles.

The union’s general secretary, Paul Whiteman, said: “The Delta variant is currently having a very significant impact in schools and the rising numbers we are seeing is a real concern.

“As we move into September, everyone will want to see disruption to education minimised. However, scrapping self-isolation for close contacts would be a very significant step to take, and the onus would be on the government and public health advisers to explain how the alternative arrangements would work and, most importantly, how they will maintain the safety of all members of the school community.

Can we rely on rapid Covid testing to replace self-isolation?

If the government goes ahead with removing the need to self-isolate and replacing this with a regular testing regime for Covid contacts, it will be returning to a plan that it abandoned in the new year.

The government had intended to use daily contact testing to be a key part of its Covid controls in schools this year.

Pupils who were identified as close contacts could continue to attend schools, if they took a daily lateral flow test that provided negative results.

However, this plan was abandoned in January on the advice of Public Health England because of the higher rates of transmission of the virus caused by a new variant.

The government has been trialling the approach in a group of secondary schools and Mr Williamson has said he will be reviewing the outcomes of the trial, as the department considers a new model for keeping children in education.

However, there are concerns that lateral flow tests miss positive cases of the virus and could result in people with Covid coming into school and spreading it, having received a false negative test result.

Earlier this month, a group of academics and scientists warned the government that it was “gambling” on risking the spread of Covid in schools by trialling this approach.

In an open letter to education secretary Gavin Williamson, they called for the daily contact testing trials taking place in schools to be halted.

The return of school testing sites

Secondary schools have already been told to prepare to run asymptomatic testing sites from September.

A Department for Education email sent to schools said it expected to be able to confirm plans alongside announcements on step 4 of its roadmap out of Covid restrictions. 

The email said: “Given the uncertainties about the Covid situation we will face in the autumn, we want to help secondary schools and colleges to be as prepared as possible for all scenarios, including testing on return after the summer holidays, if needed.

“Schools and colleges may choose to start testing students and pupils no earlier than three days before the start of term, or stagger the return of pupils during the first week of term, if they would like to do so. This is voluntary and at the discretion of each school and college. 

But ASCL has strongly criticised the way in which schools have been asked to set up testing sites with no consultation and warned that the department’s handling of Covid appeared to be in “chaos”.

The DfE has also said that everyone should continue testing twice weekly even if they don’t have symptoms.

However, testing may not be enough to keep pupils in school without additional measures to compensate for the loosened rules around isolation, particularly for primary schools, which will not be carrying out onsite testing.

For example, teaching and headteacher leaders, as well as members of the Independent Sage group, have consistently called for better ventilation in school buildings and more resources for cleaning. 

And, in secondaries, some are arguing that a return to stricter rules on masks may be needed.

Will local approaches to tackling Covid be allowed?

The DfE has also published an updated framework for tackling Covid, which indicates that localised approaches to tackling the virus may be used in future.

Schools have been told to ensure they have plans in place to restrict attendance, and reintroduce asymptomatic testing sites and masks in classrooms in case these are needed in their local area to combat Covid.

Councils and public health directors have been told they can make decisions locally about individual schools, or clusters of schools, but that any district-wide decision will need to be approved by central government.

At the start of the current academic year, the DfE created a Covid tiers system that areas would move between in order to manage the risk of the virus spreading. 

This included allowing schools in certain areas to move to rotas or to restrict attendance. However, the tiers were never actually used and the system was replaced before this year’s national lockdown was launched, which closed schools to most pupils.

Vaccinating teachers?

Another potential solution to managing the risk of Covid to staff would be to ensure that all adults in schools are vaccinated.

Shadow education secretary Kate Green has said that she would “not rule out” supporting compulsory vaccinations for teachers, but said we had not reached the point where this was needed.

Labour has previously called for teachers to be prioritised for the vaccine.

Ms Green said yesterday: “I think we’ve got to be wary about compulsory vaccinations; we wanted, as you know, to bring forward the vaccination programme for teachers to give them priority very early on this year because, if teachers are off sick, it means they have to go home and children can’t be in the classroom.

“I don’t rule it out completely as a matter of principle, but I don’t think we have, by any means, reached the point where only compulsion is going to ensure that teachers are vaccinated.”

Vaccinating pupils

Another option would be to give vaccines to teenagers.

However, vaccination experts are not planning to give the green light for administering Covid jabs to children, a cabinet minister has suggested. 

While other countries, such as the US and Israel, are vaccinating children to prevent outbreaks in schools, reports suggest that the UK government’s Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) will not be advising ministers to press ahead with a vaccination campaign for under 18s.

Earlier this month, international trade secretary Liz Truss said: “Of course, the government will look very closely at the JCVI’s recommendations. It is my understanding that they are not recommending the vaccination of under 18s and we will be saying more in due course about that.”

Public health experts want a major review

The government has been urged to launched a “root-and-branch review” of all school Covid measures by public health officials, who warn that the current system has been unable to cope with a more transmissible variant of the virus.

Jim McManus, vice-president of the Association of Directors of Public Health, told Tes that the government needs to work with local public health directors to ensure a new plan is in place for managing Covid risk in schools for September.

He added: “That will mean there needs to be a root-and-branch review of current measures to revise what ‘Covid secure’ looks like with the Delta variant.

“That means bubbles sizes, testing, face covering and other measures all need review in order to come up with a new system in place for the new school year. It is too late to have this in place for July but we need it for September.”

There are a range of options available to the government when it comes to trying to suppress the level of Covid disruption in schools, though it is not yet known which version of these will definitely be picked by ministers and exactly how they will work.

What does seem clear is that September 2021 is likely to be reminiscent of 12 months earlier, in that schools will again be expected to adjust - at relatively short notice - to the enormous demands that the pandemic and the department place upon them.