Ofqual has put out to tender a contract for researchers to run focus groups on attitudes to grading distributions in 2022 that suggests students taking exams next year will not be held to the same standards as those sitting exams pre-pandemic.
In a document seen by Tes, the regulator says that its “starting assumption” is that attainment in 2022 will be lower than prior to the pandemic, and therefore it is not seeking to hold cohorts next year to the same standards.
It suggests a new top grade could be introduced at A level to tackle concerns about grade inflation, but cautions this is “likely to cause anxiety and uncertainty”.
GCSEs 2022: Pegging grades to 2020 ‘fairest’ option
A levels 2021:
There have been growing questions about how grading standards can be returned to pre-pandemic levels. A recent Institute for Government report authored by former Department for Education adviser Sam Freedman suggested that a return to 2020 grade levels in 2022 would prove the “fairest” option.
GCSE and A-level exams 2022: Ofqual’s options for awarding grades
But today reports suggest this option has been rejected, with a return to 2019 standards preferred, with both the DfE and Ofqual in discussion over how to solve the issue of two years of grade inflation.
The tender seen by Tes sets out various options for setting grading standards in 2022.
These options include:
Option 1: Replicating the 2019 profile of results
At A level, this would see around 8 per cent of grades at A* and around 25 per cent at A* or A.
“This would mean using statistics to make sure that, subject to any changes in the prior attainment of candidate, broadly the same percentage of students achieve each grade as in 2019 (the last year when exams were taken),” Ofqual’s tender says.
“It is likely to mean grade boundaries are a little lower than they were in 2019 (ie, students do not need to perform as well as the 2019 cohort to achieve a grade), reflecting the disruption to teaching and learning.”
Option 2: Replicating 2020
Basing grades on 2020 results would involve using statistics to ensure that the same percentage of candidates achieve each grade as in 2020, when centre-assessed grades were used. Grade boundaries would be lower than they were in 2019, and lower than they would be if Ofqual attempted to replicate the 2019 boundaries.
“The overall grade distribution would be very similar to that seen in 2020,” the document says.
“At A level around 14 per cent of grades would be A* and around 38 per cent would be A* or A.”
Option 3: Keeping 2021 distributions
If Ofqual kept 2021 grade distributions, “for A level in particular, it will mean grade boundaries are lower than in options 1 and 2 and much lower than they were in 2019”, the document says.
Around 19 per cent of A-level grades would be A* and around 44 per cent would be A* or A.
Tackling grade inflation
“Looking beyond 2022, if options 2 or 3 were adopted in 2022 decisions would need to be taken on whether and, if so, how, to return to a more ‘normal’ grade profile,” the document says.
If so, the new grade standards could be carried forward, and if greater discrimination at the top end is needed for selective universities, “a new top grade could be introduced for A level”.
Tes has previously revealed how Number 10 has discussed introducing new numerical A-level grades for 2023 as a way of addressing concerns over grade inflation.
An A** grade has also been under discussion, according to sources.
However, the tender document highlights potential problems with creating a new top grade at A level, which it calls Option A. It says: “This could be confusing for teachers, students and parents as well as for HE and others using the grades to select students.
“A new grade is also likely to cause anxiety and uncertainty.”
Gradual return to 2019 grading
Education secretary Gavin Williamson said after this year’s A-level results that a “glide path back to a more normal state of affairs” on grading would be needed.
And one option listed by Ofqual could see a gradual return to 2019 grades over several years.
Under “Option B”, the regulator “could reduce the percentage of higher grades by a certain amount each year, until they are back in line with the grade distribution in 2019”.
“This could be done over one, two or more years,” the tender document says.
However, it adds: “One disadvantage of this approach is that, as successive cohorts are less affected by the pandemic and so improve their attainment (and therefore their performance in the exams), it would nevertheless become successively harder to obtain a top grade.”
Focus groups to discuss ‘unfairness’
The document says that the appointed supplier should design focus groups of teachers, parents and students to discuss issues such as what a fair approach to grading in 2022 might be, whether any of the options would be unfair, how grades would be viewed by themselves and others if inflation is seen to be carried forwards, and views on the approach beyond 2022.
Participants would also be asked to consider how they see themselves “relative to students in 2021 and students in 2023 and beyond”, for example to what extent they think they will be in direct competition with them for university places and jobs, “noting that 2021 students entering [university] in 2022 will likely either have a deferred place or will receive an unconditional offer”.
And they will also be asked about their views on the possibility that universities would “inflate” their offers to match inflated A-level results if there was no return to the 2019 grading profile, as well as if they would be concerned if more universities introduced their own selection tests.
Ofqual’s tender says that focus groups should be run online with around five to seven participants in each group. The contracted supplier would be expected to produce a discussion guide “agreed by Ofqual prior to use”.
It adds that the supplier should produce a presentation of roughly 15 minutes for an Ofqual team in a virtual meeting with time for follow-up questions and discussion, and that if requested the supplier may need to present this to the Ofqual Board.
Ofqual’s requirements for the groups show that they must be socioeconomically balanced and ethnically diverse, as well as representative of different school types.
The focus groups would be made up of three stakeholder groups - students taking exams in 2022, parents of students due to take exams next year and teachers with classes due to take exams - to explore attitudes to grading next year.
The supplier should undertake seven groups in total, the document says. In the week commencing 27 September, the report to Ofqual should be drafted and a presentation to Ofqual’s senior team carried out, and the week commencing 4 October the supplier should be available to present to Ofqual’s Board if required.
The regulator adds that notes should be taken from each focus group to be sent to Ofqual within two working days, along with analysis and interpretation of the findings.
Ofqual has been contacted for comment.
