Number 10 is discussing introducing numerical A-level grades to replace the current A*-E system as soon as 2023, Tes understands.

Talks are at an early stage but replacing alphabetical grades with a numerical system in two years’ time is currently the government’s preferred option as a means to control grade inflation, according to a source close to the discussions.

Analysis: Can schools return to 2019 GCSE grades?

A levels: Numerical grades ‘unrealistic’ say heads

Exams 2022: Pegging grades to 2020 ‘fairest’ option

Next summer is seen as too early for a grading reset. Instead, grades in 2022 are likely to be pegged to results in 2020, say sources.

This, according to a report from the Institute for Government last week, would be the “fairest option” for exam students.

“On balance, we recommend option four using grades from 2020 rather than 2021, as this year’s results are so high as to make the university admissions system potentially unworkable,” the report said.

Surge in top grades

In England this year, nearly one in five - 19.1 per cent - of entries were awarded an A* grade, while more than two in five - 44.3 per cent - of entries were awarded an A or A*.

It is thought that introducing numerical grades in 2023 could reset the A-level grading system so that grade inflation is not baked in over the long term.

But some education leaders have argued against the idea of numerical grading for A levels.

Speaking last week, Paul Whiteman, general secretary of the NAHT school leaders’ union, said that “suggestions of a move to numerical system are unrealistic”. 

Lessons from GCSE grading switch

“When GCSE grading changed, there were new specifications introduced and it took four years from the first teaching of those to the point where all GCSE’s received numerical results,” he added.

Tim Oates, director of assessment research and development at Cambridge Assessment, told Tes: “It’s a clear and tricky tightrope which needs to be walked [when deciding to reset grades].

“On the one hand, prior to pandemic, the combination of reformed GCSEs and strategies on maths and literacy in primary were having a positive effect - our 15-year-olds’ performance in Pisa (Programme for International Student Assessment) was improving impressively.

“That has one set of implications when thinking around standards. On the other hand, there is a moral and technical need to support the successive cohorts of learners who have been affected by pandemic. That’s the kind of policy territory we are in.”

A Department for Education spokesperson said: “Students have worked incredibly hard during an extremely challenging time and they deserve their qualifications.

“Exams are the best form of assessment and we intend for them to go ahead next year and subsequent years.

“We have consulted on how to ensure they go ahead fairly next year, and Ofqual will confirm the approach to grading for 2022 in the autumn term.”

An Ofqual spokesperson said: “We have no plans to change the GCSE or A-level grading system. And we will confirm the approach to grading for 2022 in the autumn term.”